China is already the biggest car market in the world, and now, a new forecast predicts that Chinese car brands are poised to capture up to one-third of the global market by the end of the decade.
The new forecast was published by AlixPartners, a U.S. consulting firm headquartered in New York. According to the forecast, Chinese car exports are expected to rise to 9 million units by 2030, securing a 33-percent global share, despite aggressive Western tariffs.
Key drivers of this shift include China’s lead in near-term volume growth, just as growth in the U.S. and Europe slows. According to the forecast, Chinese automakers are setting new industry standards with regard to cost advantages, localized production strategies, and tech-enabled vehicles that align with consumer preferences.
The report also highlights the rise of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), which are predicted to account for almost half of the global market by 2030, primarily driven by increasing demand for plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs). Meanwhile, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are expected to fall below 40 percent of the market share.
AlixPartners suggests that automakers should overhaul their vehicle development processes and sales techniques in order to keep pace with these changes, emphasizing consumer technology, reduced costs, and lower time to market. A recent study found that China spent $230 billion in support of the local EV industry over the course of the last 10 years.
While the rise in market share for Chinese car brands is good news for GM brands like Baojun and Wuling, the increase in global Chinese car sales may also cut into market share for GM’s domestic brands.
Back in May, the Biden administration announced a 100-percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, a significant increase from the 25-percent tariff imposed previously. The Biden administration also announced a fresh round of tariffs for Chinese-made EV components, including semiconductors, graphite and permanents magnet materials, and lithium-ion batteries.
Subscribe to GM Authority for more GM business news, GM electric vehicle news, GM production news, GM-related political news, and around-the-clock GM news coverage.
Comments
What is GMs product response to the possibility that Chinese car brand may have one-third of the global market by 2030?
Some of that 30% will be GM Chinese brands Baojun and Wuling, and some of the development of these EVs may spread to US manufactured brands , ie hybrid for Equinox , and small SUVs Crossovers
GM is only a minority owner in those brands.
They don’t give a crap.
Well they should give a crap because much of that market share can be taken from them more so than the Japanese and Korean brands which hold more brand loyalty. Many people buy GM cars just for the rebates.
Although personally, I have my doubts of how this will play out. In the US you have cheap options like Mitsubishi and people would still rather buy a nice pre-owned Toyota or Honda over a Mitsu. So I can’t imagine this will be any different with the Chinese brands.