The future is electric, according to nearly every major automaker. From General Motors to Volkswagen, automakers are gearing up for a transformation away from the internal-combustion engine and to electric motors and battery packs.
But, not all is quiet on the western front.
According to a Thursday report from Design News, automakers and suppliers have quietly shared concerns over electric car adoption rates in the United States. Despite the grandstanding, investments and major announcements, the fact is electric cars make up a sliver of U.S. auto sales. And analysts don’t expect that to suddenly shift, even with more electric cars on sale.
“Often, it was quietly said afterward [at a CAR seminary]: ‘Now, we have to figure out who’s going to buy these cars,’” Brett Smith, a program director at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), said.
One of the major fear factors is production volume. Automakers run major risks tooling a plant for a 200,000-unit capacity, when in reality, a particular electric car may sell just 50,000 units.
“No one wants to spend on a capacity of 200,000 if they’re only going to sell 50,000. That gets very expensive, very fast,” Sam Abuelsamid, senior analyst for Navigant Research, said.
At GM, the automaker plans to introduce 20 new electric cars by 2023, though it’s becoming more clear that not all 20 cars will reach North America. Instead, the grand plan will appease upcoming Chinese regulations. In fact, Buick’s electric-car plans may be on hold as GM reassesses the market in North America; the brand was rumored to introduce a more luxurious Bolt EV-based model before 2020.
Automakers hope that by giving consumers what they want will inevitably sell electric cars, with a focus on packaging the fundamentals into a car that just so happens to house a charging port. But, only when electric cars reach cost parity with gasoline-powered vehicles will we likely see a major shift.
Comments
There are just some issues still involved here.
First off gas has remained Cheap.
Second the cars are still expensive.
Third these cars will require a change in habits and lifestyle for many as they are today.
Fourth there are no charging stations in the majority of the country and if there are you have to use 1/4 of your range to get to them. Then you sit.
The future regulations will require these models as there is no way to meet the new emissions with out them. But there is still work to do. The keys are more charging stations. Lower prices on the cars and finally a battery that will charge in the same length of time as a tank of gas to fill. You meet these goals and these products in various different kinds of models would become viable to most average drivers.
I think the greatest disappointment is in California as they have only turned 5% of their market to Electric. I find that shocking in the biggest electric market. I would have hoped that there they would have seen 10% by now,
I don’t buy that charging station bit, as recharging an EV is done at home and not at a dedicated, third party facility like a gas station. There’s no need for dedicated charging stations alongside gas pumps if every single home in North America has 220V service built in.
Since the charging is done at home, it means how one uses an EV changes too. You charge it when you’re done using it and don’t intend to use it for a number of hours later (typically overnight while you sleep).
There were 74 million occupied single-family dwellings in the US as of 2014. There are probably more today. Your argument is supported by the above.
I would point out that GM, to name one manufacturer, historically has not advertised their electric cars as they do their pickup trucks, SUVs and CUVs. Why would one think that the public would seek out such unusual vehicles and self-generate a desire to own them on a massive scale without advertising? Well, they haven’t. So, I lay the blame squarely on the manufacturers who, imho, want to maximize their short-term profits for their stockholders.
If the manufacturers really wanted to get the ball rolling, they would educate the people and generate interest through advertising.
There is a flaw to this thinking.
Where are the majority of buyers located! Urban areas. What do urban areas often lack? Garages. No garage no charging station.
Suburban and Rual area people are less inclined to go electric since the can have much longer commutes.
Everyone has outlets at home to charge their phones and pads yet we now have charging stations in many public places because many people are not disciplined to charge their items.
Same on gas we have stations everywhere but yet daily you see people out of gas. The problem with an EV is you make a mistake and you are not walking for a can of gas you are on a flat bed.
Take a trip you are stuck some place for a good while and odds are it is not just on you planned path.
As I have said these are lifestyle changers and till they are gone people will be reluctant.
Nothing about home charging an EV says that you need to do so in an attached garage. Existing independent charging stations prove that.
Yes, you can charge an EV in your driveway WITHOUT parking it inside a garage. BEHOLD! The idea of mounting the charger to the exteriour sheathing and studs. It’s not that hard to do, and it doesn’t require a garage.
I agree that usage behaviour would have to change too, but unless you’re traveling over 350kms daily (and I don’t think many people do), they wouldn’t have any difficulty charging a Chevy Bolt nightly. It’s easy to get into a routine just as easily as people have gotten into the routine of charging their phones.
G daddy you assume everyone lives in a home like you.
Most people in the primary market areas for EV cars live in Apartments that have if they are lucky a garage. Most are assigned a spot and there is no way to install a charging station. Those on the street in a different parking sport every night have no options.
Row houses often have no parking and if they do it is outside and then you run into the issue of theft or damage. We have people today breaking into power sub stations getting fried to steal wire. Charging stations unprotected would be prime targets.
Normal urban and suburban homes often have limited driveway space. Often it makes many have to move cars just to get in and out. Same if the charger is near the house.
The other 800 pound gorilla in the room is the cost of the charging station on all ready high priced car for what you get. Then you have to have the 220 run to it.
I am one of few who has a new garage build recently and planned ahead with 220 run to it so I can use a welder and in anticipation of having a charger in the future.
Just to get an idea of how many vehicles sit out look at the cars in the morning drive with dew on them or snow.
The bottom line is to get one of these cars takes commitment to a level many just do not have the taste for yet. They only care that they get a car that they can afford, is reliable and easy to use.
To go electric is to be willing to change your life style and to be willing to pay up front more money that you may or may not ever get back. Some do it to save the trees but most just want to get to work and home in the fastest easiest and affordable method.
No you do not have to have a garage but you really have to look at the circumstances many are under and in the prime target areas like San Francisco, San Diego, NYC and LA to get a grasp of what they have to work with and what they have to go thought to adapt to this new technology.
For Tesla owners when you spend $130K on a car odds are they live in a place that presents them with a good location to charge. They also are willing to pay the money because the car is more of a novelty to them or image car that replaced their leased BMW. But for the meat and potato’s people that need a car just to get to work to feed the family the other options are cheaper and less hassle. They will replace the existing car with the new one and not have to change a thing in their lives.
Until it is as easy and cheap to buy, own and refuel an EV as a ICE they are still not a car for just anyone. You have to be willing to pay more and adjust your life and few are willing to do this.
As things improve the price will come down and charging issues will become easier but it will take time.
I just looked at projected cost on batteries in the KW per unit in the future. They have it projected to decline but it really does not get really cheap till 2050. That is based in todays technology. We may get a break through but until then you have to work with what you have.
EV has become a viable option but it has not yet become the viable replacement for most drivers yet. The day may be coming sooner than we think but until they get it worked out ICE is firmly in place like it or not.
I take trips in my car, often. I want to go when and where I want. It must be just as convenient as a traditional Gasoline automobile.
Scott, you are wrong on all counts. Read the other posts here and see your mistakes.
Ray you may disagree but that does not make me wrong.
GMs problem is right now that they have to make and develope EV cars to bring down cost and to advance the technology by supporting vendors willing to make parts.
The problem is they are not making money on them. This is a controld build up till they bring down cost to where people may actually consider buying a EV car.
As it is the trucks and CUV models are paying for the EV development.
To be honest the only reason for the development is due to future regulations here, China and Europe. If not for that they would have just kept pumping out the same thing we have had.
The public has always been reluctant of EV. Cost, range and charging times have been a factor. Range is improving the cost is coming down and charging has gotten better but not to where the average American is interested.
The other issue to be faced is old EV cars. Like cell phones these cars will age quickly as new models will continue to advance and improve in performance and range at lower cost. Today’s cars 5 years from now may be worth what an I phone 5 is today with a worn battery.
Will customers suffer major depreciation due to advancement? Time will tell but the risk is there.
There is just a lot to deal with yet and learn.
I like EV and have driven many of the. I have even driven the fuel cell Nox. But I also listen to the average people and hear their concerns. I keep up through the SAE on new developments and their concerns.
The web is full of foolish hate or blind love for the EV and the truth lies in the middle of both. The middle is were I sit on this and I get hits from both side because I do not join in the fanatic thinking of either side. Neither want to hear reality.
Solving the EV question I much like Curing Cancer. Both are multi faceted delimema with no one single answer that resolves the many issues each face.
If it were that easy to solve it would have been done by now and companies would not be losing billions in hopes to find the answers they need.
What an absurd 180 degree misrepresentaion of the truth ! GM refused to sell the gamechanging Bolt in Europe despite clear huge demand for it ! They even told Norwegian dealers to stop taking so many orders for it ! They’ve colluded with the rest of the global automotive “alliance” to kill off EPA clean car regulations and California-led pro-EV mandates.
Your report is pure, opposite-of-the-truth hokum. Period.
Paul G
The North American sales are especially disappointing considering that, in Norway, almost 1 out of 3 new car sold in 2017 was electric.
Both the USA and Canada are showing a deeply anchored ICE dependency.
Meanwhile, not all is the consumer’s fault. The lack of evangelism/advertising from car makers is pathetic.
Well the country of Norway is a major difference in many areas. For one they have much more expensive fuel cost.
Their auto market sells about the same number of cars annually as Florida if that. They also are a very different culture. They have most of their population centers with few roads out side of them. while they have fair amount of land mass it is not like driving in Texas.
You can market the heck out of them but until they have more charging stations and batteries that charge as fast as a tank of fuel takes to fill people are not going to change their life styles to own electric.
Even at 30 mins most people in our fast pace society will not wait for a charge.
Even back in the day I pumped gas when I was in high school many would only get $10 of gas because they did not wan to wait for the tank to fill.
Even here in Ohio we can go shopping in Columbus and it would use up the range on most EV cars just to go there and back.
I saw an article in 2016 where a survey showed 60+% of Americans didn’t even know electric cars of any kind existed. Of the people surveyed who were aware of electric cars being on the road, the only one they could name was Tesla. I’ve been driving a Nissan Leaf since 2011 and I STILL encounter people weekly who’ve never heard of it. So, I have no reason to believe the numbers of people aware of EVs has changed much since 2016.
You can’t sell people something they don’t know exists. If auto makers want to sell electric cars they have to make an effort to actually sell electric cars. Start with properly trained sales staff. Then put EVs out on the front lot, not behind chain link fences out back. Advertise EVs on TV & radio like every other car. Forget promoting all the save the planet BS, nobody cares. Just advertise them as cheap to operate and fun to drive. That’s all that matters.
The real hurdle to overcome isn’t the cars themselves, it’s convenient, dependable, standardized, working public charging infrastructure and plenty of it. The government needs to stop giving incentives to buy EVs. Somebody needs to be giving incentives to businessess for installing chargers at their locations.
It’s not worthwhile to charge at business or at dedicated charging stations, as you wouldn’t want to stay there any longer than you need to and not beholden to waiting for the car to charge.
If I’m going to McDonalds, why would I want to wait in line to use their chargers for 5 minutes to get less than 1Kwh of energy? It’s not even worth the effort to wait in line for a 5 minute charge if it takes 8 hours to charge it fully.
The infrastructure for EV charging is already in place in every single detracted home in North America. All that’s needed is a 220V breaker and an exterior plug. Charge the car at home when you’re not using it, thereby negating the need to charge at independent businesses, which didn’t make sense in the first place.
There is still a need for destination charging. NOT at McDonalds, not at the Chamber Of Commerce, not at city hall, but many other places make sense. Any convenient location a driver can easily spend at least an hour is a good candidate. An hour of charge time usually amounts to between 25 & 30 miles usable range. Sometimes that’s all that is necessary to make it home, or reach the next/nearest available DCFC location. An hour or two is often all many PHEVs need for a full charge.
The primary purpose of ALL public charging is to bring visitors in from surrounding areas and help them spend their money in the local economy. The secondary consideration is not all EV drivers have easy access to charging where they live. You’re right, most local EV drivers generally charge at home and don’t need to use local public charging at all most of the time. Unfortunately, this is where a lot of cities and towns miss the point of public charging completely. City leaders often don’t think outside local demand. They need to be considering how many EV travelers are likely to visit or pass through from at least 100 miles away.
Destination charging may not always the first/best choice, but it’s sometimes just the necessary option. I HAVE spent 90 minutes at a McDonalds charger in another city before. The primary location I expected to charge at was down/offline. My fallback location was ICEd. McDonalds was my only remaining option and I was glad to have it. At that moment it was definitely worthwhile. Many restaurants in my area require an investment of an hour and a half to two hours for a meal. Sometimes it takes 30 to 45 minutes just to get a table. Local malls and shopping centers are great locations for Level-2 public charging. Sporting event venues are also perfect for destination charging. Not to mention movie theaters and tourist attractions like museums, performance venues and historic properties. Don’t forget hotels and B&Bs either.
I live in a town with two nice, medium size cities at the edge of my EV range. One has NO public charging at all unless I book a hotel room. The other city has several thoughtfully placed destination chargers and a couple of DCFC locations. Where do you think I prefer to visit and spend my money when I need a change of scenery?
GM spent an absolute mint on developing the Voltec drive system and then did very little to promote/educate the clueless masses about it. Instead the public simply decided the Volt was not an “electric car” but another hybrid and a very expensive one at that. A that point it was basically game over. The small hatchback design of the Volt was never going to appeal to all, so they developed the Volt MPV5, and then what? It was scrapped because of poor sales of the Volt!
Range anxiety is and will continue to be a factor in all electric vehicles , the Voltec basically eliminates that issue entirely and yet GM totally blew it in making people understand. I recently bought a 2012 Volt to ease the use/wear on my ’16 Chevy SS, it’s a better car than it gets credit for.