As U.S. President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on most of the world, the effects could lead to nearly 2 million fewer auto sales in the United States during 2025, according to the auto advisory firm Telemetry.
As Reuters reports, the forecast projects that 1.8 million fewer auto sales may take place in the U.S. this year as a result of the tariffs, with the potential for 7 million fewer sales in Canada and the United States between now and 2035.
With a 25 percent tariff on complete vehicles and vehicle components imported into the United States now in place, plants are already pausing production in Canada and Mexico. Some layoffs are also happening in the U.S. as workers who produced parts to be sent to the neighboring countries for final assembly into vehicles are sent home by various automakers.
With about 75 percent of Buick vehicles currently being built outside U.S. borders the brand itself could be at risk of extinction. Even if this worst-case scenario doesn’t happen, the Tri-Shield could see its optimistic growth predictions cut back – perhaps drastically – by the long-term effects of the tariffs.
Telemetry’s insights VP Sam Abuelsamid commented on several aspects of the scenario that sees a sharp cutback in the number of U.S. auto sales both in 2025 and in the longer term. Abuelsamid said “vehicle affordability is already a major issue for consumers” and that “with sales going down, you’re going to have layoffs.”
While President Trump has touted the tariffs as a way to return manufacturing to the United States – an opinion echoed by UAW president Shawn Fain – Abuelsamid remains dubious. He pointed out that “even to the degree that some production shifts to the U.S., it’s not going to be enough to offset the lost employment from higher costs and lower sales.”
U.S. auto sales were consistently in the 17-million range prior to COVID-19. In the year of the pandemic they dipped to 14.6 million sales, before climbing back to 16 million in 2024. A 1.8-million unit drop such as that predicted by Telemetry could see 2025 sales as low as 14.2 million vehicles, even worse than the initial year of the COVID pandemic.
Comments
When they said bring back manufacturing we just didn’t realize they meant manufactured scarcity and increased prices!
Exactly, this is how business work, crush sales for a while, then when they resume to normal levels claim outrageous success at the growth created, it is all part of a master plan.
No Problem! This is exactly what winning feels like.
Green tree huggers will love Trump
Here’s an idea for GM: use some of the million or so units of unused capacity to build the vehicles in the US.
Can the Trax be built profitably here? With lower priced vehicles less common and the value for the money the Trax brings, it’d make sense to try and build ( A LOT ) of them here in the US.
Lordstown is a GM vehicle “factory-in-waiting”. Bring the Trax here!
Honda builds the Civic here profitably. So does Toyota with the Corolla, Hyundai with the Elantra, Nissan with the Sentra, and Subaru with the Impreza. None of them are complaining and yet they keep their economy car statuses.
Excuses are like @**holes. Everyone has one.
Camry, Corolla, Highlander, RAV4, Tundra, and Sienna.
I always say this same thing to people. Foreign manufacturers seem to have no problem selling cars and building them in the states. Cars will come back, everything does eventually and GM will import Foreign cars with GM badges. I tell people to buy American manufactured cars no matter who makes them and I’ve been an electrician 25 years for GM.
It can. It’s built in Korea because most of the units are sold their. It’s their Camry. Last year nearly 300,000 traxs were sold in Korea. We just skim the bottom with some sales here. The Trax might be cheaper to make over here like the Corolla is cheaper here and made in Mississippi. Ditto Buick, where 80% of Buick are sold in Chin@ even if only 75% of them are made in chin@. That’s because the last emporers brought in Buicks so they see Buick as we see Maserati. Typical f@ke news Reuters.
GM Korea produces high assembly quality products. US union assembly will never match their high quality standards. I own an Encore GX, perfectly built. No seam errors or other crappy assembly like in my previous US assembled cars.
…Sure
You have no idea about how much capacity there is if you are not at the top of the
company. Unless you are PHYCIC or some thing. A bottom feeder in food chain does not have the stats to back up there claims. Consider this a “VERBAL SPANKING> Please.
You “ROOKIES” are all the same. Me thinks your head may have a BIG leak. Auto motive term. You would not understand.
Trump = Economic calamity.
If Trump didn’t step up and do this, eventually US would drwon inder debt and not be self sufficient. we wil fall under Russia/China CCP rule
Nobody (except us) seems to get this. My parents escaped a military dictatorship in South America to come here for a better life and these American clowns born with a silver spoon in their mouths take this privilege for granted. Because while we Americans see it as a right, at the end of the day, in these other countries its a privilege if its even granted to you at all. And when they finally do and realize their beloved right to poke fun at the leader for disagreeing with his policies is taken away from them and met with trips to get “re-educated” it will be too late.
I have a colleague from China who came to the US with his family. Brilliant guy. And he says it is very much true that life is like that there and you have to watch who you criticize in the party. Every time he goes back to visit his parents he gets nervous for his safety for posting something the government may not like.
Unfortunately, the “economy” in total, is beyond what most people can understand.
It seems you are the one who does not understand, since this administration has already spent more money within the first 100 day period than any previous administration in history. Despite cutting how many programs and agencies? They don’t care about our debt. They care about their own pockets. Both sides in government only care about how they can enrich themselves. They don’t care what hurts the consumers.
As I do recall, item #1 under Brandon was the massive American recovery plan which was 2 trillion on top of a 3 trillion + CR and nearly 1 trillion anticipated deficit before the new spending. Heck, even going back to just that plain 2020 CR before the American “recovery” act would balance the budget due to inflation. Tump has cut spending, not spent any more (congressional approval is needed for new spending)
Please do math before post! It helps avoid looking like an ignoramus.
@BlazerSSEV
This is an outright lie, stop watching “fear mongering” and lying news outlets like CNN and MSNBC. They are both bankrupt and laying off workers left and right. Start thinking freely for yourself instead of being a puppet.
Trump has cut wasteful spending in the billions and you liberal clowns are complaining that people are losing their jobs. Pathetic
The man knows what he is doing. $hut*p and let him do his job.
Ok buddy lol
If GM has a substantial vehicle sales loss, it will be because of their obsession to force the elimination of ice vehicles. They need to replace their CEO before total destruction of the company.
@Kevin
💯 agree with you on this.
Kevin ,,I agree 1,000 %
well sales of american autos in canada are going to nosedive! we helped keep GM and Chyrsler stay afloat , bailed them out in 2009 to see the jobs go to mexico! we should have let them die and bring the chinese autos here. the way trump is treating us we will bring chinese vehicles here
Go right ahead and see how that plays out for your own industry. I can promise you they have ZERO interest in opening up any manufacturing in Canada, and prefer dumping their vehicles and other in your country to oust everyone else out. Unifor will be completely dissolved because they will have no interest in entertaining them. They bought up multiple English brands (MG and Lotus) and moved all their manufacturing to the mainland and left nothing for the English. But go on right ahead. Just don’t complain afterwards and say you weren’t warned.
A byproduct of this IS HIGHER quality products. It’s refreshing to have well built vehicles and not have them breaking down all the time like the US brands.
The byproduct is a hollowed out industrial base completely at the mercy of China. No more Unifor or any other Canadian unions because there will be no Canadian manufacturing for them to fight for left. Just hollowed out abandoned plants closed down due to product dumping and Canadians not able to compete with Chinese dumping prices.
So when they decide to do a play at Taiwan, there will be no “maximum pressure” in the name of justice for the people of Taiwan like many wanted for Ukraine against Russia. What you will get instead is Ottawa saying “Yes master. Whatever you want. Just please don’t choke off our supplies” because it will be at the complete mercy to Beijing via any coercion should you have anything to say about it. But remember, YOU wanted this.
So go ahead. Give up your dignity just so you can have “high quality” cars NOT made by Canadians or an American brand (or Japanese brand) by Canadians.
There is a reason even Vietnam and Turkey have tariffs on China. Vietnam because China was wreaking havoc of their garment industry and Turkey because they have their own auto industry and appliance industry as well.
Trump and his parrots don’t even know it was Henry Ford and William Durant that expanded willingly into Canada in the early 1900’s. It made complete sense then. And now. If Trump tries to change that, there’s no sales in Canada to be had. US manufacturing will only cater to it’s domestic demand, and quality will sink even lower. Good business strategy, Trump.
I guess you have a lot of money and LOVE to pay for people who loose there jobs and go on social assistance and loose there houses. And pay for people who can not find work. Because of people with your type of attitude. I*v lost several jobs + social costs are enormous. You obvious have a secure job. Never lost your job. So still you head you know where….. (politically correct)
Easy fix. Just raise prices again.
I’m drowning in soy liberal tears LOL
I do too!! It’s called TDS and they need to seek help….immediately
The biggest problem now is affordability. People are getting hit from every angle with price hikes. Most people are just trying to hang on. They don’t have anything left for a new or used vehicle.
@Guest
Then fix the vehicle one currently owns. Stop paying these stupid prices. I new engine or transmission. New shocks, tie rods, tires, replacing plugs, air conditioner. NONE of those repairs cost the price of a new vehicle
It’s not a need, it’s a WANT and until people understand this concept. The auto industry will continue to ABUSE consumers. Stop buying!! Prices will go down. Huge incentives will be slapped onto the hoods again.
They don’t salt roads where you live do they? Most every older vehicle in WNY is a rust bucket at even 8-10 years and they still often want a good buck for them. Not worth a motor if the frame is rotted out. I agree with your sentiment but it has practical limits up North.
They salt them down here in Indio, but they salt it like saying the ocean is salt water compared to the dead sea. Michigan and the “snow belt” of northern Ohio, NY and parts of Vermont get salt like it’s going out of style. Most modern vehicles are capable of withstanding Midwest levels of salt. A 100% carbon fiber car can’t withstand snow belt salt (joking, but not really )
Yea! Let’s live like Cubans!
Hence very likely the diminishment of the EV, and the retraction of nanybots and AI driving. The majority of the outrageous costs today are the fact that today’s cars are riddled with computers and the cheapest, simplest cars are required by law now to have sonic sensors, detection system, cameras and 49 airbags. Then these same cars that are sold in bulk need to make 5-10K profit per unit to fund EV’s and pay carbon credits to Tesla. You end all that, which tump started to do in 2019, and you can drop the new price of a standard car by at least 5-10K. Be nice if a Trax without the nanny bots would cost 15-18K made in lordstown OH.
We actually went down this road before in the 60’s and 70’s where cars had incredible technology available to them (jet engines, active suspensions, adjusting headlights) but in the end, consumers stuck with simple lines and affordable V8’s mated to 2 speed transmissions as it was what everyone could afford. We need back to basics.
Sales might fall to Covid levels, BUT this time people are driving at pre and post Covid levels!
Vehicles wear out. In this region with road chemicals, you’ll get 10 years out of a vehicle before it disintegrates. Then what? What happens when the person barely making payments on their 8-year (or longer) loan needs to cover a major repair out of warranty? We’re sitting on a ticking clock with no easy ways out.
Then whichever auto company has figured out to produce more will become the dominate auto manufacturer in the world. As such, the moment one of the big contenders announces their massively expanding production, the remaining will have no choice but do double down and follow. Ford and GM have hinted at it, but haven’t jumped in headfirst. As soon as someone does, it’s a race to the finish who can produce more.
Remember last time this happened? It was the 1950’s. Not a bad time to be alive.
A drop of sales by 2 million vehicles in a year. That’s 6410 per selling day.
And some people say that trump is doing a great job. I don’t get it.