Car research firm Recurrent has a new report claiming that EV battery replacement will cost less than replacing a gas engine by 2030. This is based on estimates pointing to lower costs for battery metals, cheaper chemistries like LFP (which GM is considering for electric trucks), higher energy density packs, and recycling and reuse of mined materials.
Recurrent presents a wide range of predictions for EV battery pack costs in 2030. Goldman Sachs estimates $64/kWh by 2030, and EMI estimates a pack price of anywhere from $45-65/kWh. Chinese battery manufacturers CATL and BYD are already offering LFP cells for as low as $56/kWh, so these optimistic estimates are based on cost reductions that are already happening.
The Recurrent report gives the following examples to make the case for electric vehicle battery replacement getting cheaper than ICE replacement: “This puts pack prices at or under $50/kWh. For a huge 100 kWh pack, replacement costs might be $4500-$5000, or $3,375 for a more standard 75 kWh pack. That’s on par with an engine replacement!”
Recurrent, using data from RMI, points out advancements in chemistry change, density improvement, recycling, and second-life use that reduce the demand for rare earth minerals in EV battery packs.
The study also predicts a future where EV owners will be able to sell the old battery pack in their vehicle and replace it with a new one, extending the life of the car. Today, a battery pack over 10 years old has little value, but Recurrent sees that changing soon with a growing market for second-life batteries with use cases like energy storage or backup power. Another option it predicts for future owners is buying a cheap, used electric vehicle and replacing the battery “for a few thousand dollars.”
Prohibitively high costs have consistently been a top reason in surveys for drivers’ reluctance to buy an EV. However, Recurrent optimistically predicts that price parity between new EVs and similar gas-powered vehicles will happen as soon as 2026. Coincidentally, 2026 is the model year when the next-generation Chevy Bolt EV is expected to arrive, which GM has said will be the most affordable electric vehicle in the U.S.
Comments
Bull.
“2 more years till EV’s are profitable!”
“Solid state will be the new tech by 2025”
“ICE is dead”
When will the lies stop, and this time it’s from a source with a tacky electric car zinnger name 😂 they do realize an engine replacement also is a massive money maker as well right? 30-50% upcharge. Try again wokie
Replacing an EV battery pack is only half of it, that doesn’t include the electric drive motors.
The drive motors is the least concerning item. Many robust motors especially AC synchronous motors will last for decades provided they remain operating within the electrical limits they are designed for and are adequately cooled. At most, bearings on the rotor may need replacement.
Aside from the battery, I’d be more concerned with the inverter than the actual drive motors. Electronics will break down with time and I know atleast in regards to rolling stock (i.e. electric trains), the inverters are usually needing servicing more than the motors (not counting bearing replacements).
And how often is an ICE engine replaced? Not very, as far as I know. But batteries will have to be, and much sooner than an engine would. More EV fake news that just won’t stop.
Beachy – step inside any brand car dealership. ICE engines are replaced all the time. So much so that most GM engines are on backorder.
@jeffhoutx84: Correct. I work at a Mazda and Volvo store. You wouldn’t believe the line of wood box and/or hard black plastic crates lined up with engines waiting to go back to the manufacturers. It’s so bad that they had to build a heavy duty shelving unit to keep them. And yes, it’s not just Volvo engines. Many of them are Mazda’s.
You seem to have bought into propaganda. EV batteries need to be replaced after 300k-500k miles, often matching or outlasting internal combustion engine lifespans. Get with the facts.
Making up facts won’t help you. We’re not a bunch of 5 year olds.
The slightest damage and the entire pack has to be replaced. Or, more likely, the ev is mechanically totalled. By the time an ICE is 5 years old, there are like-new engines available for 1/10th the cost of new.
I’ve bought into the fact there are multiple cars needing batteries replaced every 100K. Cause it’s happening and making headlines.
You can find some examples of EV’s with 300K on the original battery, because the battery was babies. I can find hundreds of examples of ICE engines making 1 million miles because they were babied.
I have a 2014 Ford Fusion Hybrid, and its 1.8 kWh battery runs as good as new. Batteries go bad according to the user, not the manufaturer. GM batteries can last for decades. Replacement cost depend on how easy it can be removed and lifted, since the rest is two hoses and a few electrical connectors.
Gm had to replace all their early EV batteries, so how do you know they last for decades?!
So, you’ve never worked on an ICE engine old enough to need electrical component replacement???? Engines have a a single cable going to the ECU/breaker box and a cable going to the starter. Course this is on trucks that blew ECU’s, crusted breaker boxes. The engines were fine.
are you and Dan Berning the same person?
Total BS by what is essentially a biased EV blog. There’s no data whatsoever that supports this, just some biased speculation.
Hmm… science and data-informed predictions versus… *checks notes*… some rando who merely uses the words “biased speculation.”
Hahaha. Tigger has been one of those on this site for many years.
From the Recurrent web site: “Recurrent:
Electric Vehicle Research & Insights.” Of course like the liberal media “certain people” on this site rely upon and believe, the Recurrent website only publishes flowery articles that supports their cause
And I thought the bowl of Kool-Aid was already empty. Silly me.
Bull$h!t
There is no way it will be cheaper. For the trucks, to even get to the battery, you must remove the entire cab! That cost alone is more than replacing or overhauling an ICE engine. Give me a break.
This EV push nonsense is truly comical
While I agree with your sentiment, the Ultium platform does not require a cab removal. It is lifted in the air and battery lower on to a hoist.
Where are you getting this utter nonsense?
From having to do training on it from GM to work on them??? You could also try using Google. I know for 100% fact, to service or work on the ultium battery on a GMC Hummer, the battery comes off the bottom. The cab is not lifted off the frame. Pray tell, where are you getting your ‘utter nonsense’?
Google lies 😏
You might not have realized that I wasn’t responding to your comment. You can see who is responding to whom on the threading. That might be a new concept for you. I was responding to to the comment “to even get to the battery, you must remove the entire cab.”
I work in a dealership. I just checked the warranty replacement times for Sierra EV, Sierra L3B, LZ0 and L84/L87. Battery replacement on the EV start to finish is almost 50% faster than the fastest of the three ICE replacements. And that includes a good chunk dedicated to preparing the old pack for shipping.
I doubt this as batteries are becoming structural to the chassis of the car.
That doesn’t mean they can’t be removed. It just means that individual cells can’t be serviced.
So is a windshield. What’s your point?
The battery tray is structural not the battery pack itself.
“Prohibitively high costs have consistently been a top reason in surveys for drivers’ reluctance to buy an EV.”<— You see this right here. For all the EV hopefuls that live in a fantasy world of unicorns and all electric vehicles in every household whether delusional politician or just delusional fanboy? Until this statement is addressed we will never see that world. So more action to make them more affordable and on par with ICEs performance wise and less hot air promises because unless this is addressed, that all EV pipe dream is DOA.
Like I said, so far, the Equinox EV is a nice start in this direction. But more needs to be done.
With the $7500 rebate, the Equinox EV is just about the most affordable compact SUV you can buy in the USA, ICE or electric. The really crappy base Jeep Compass is about the same price as the Equinox after rebate. Cost parity is here, so “more action to make them more affordable” is pretty much an obsolete statement. Almost every household in the US with 2 or more vehicles can easily have one of the vehicles be an EV right now and it would save them money overall.
GrandPrixGTP: Correct. However, once that fat orange convict is back in office along with his Oompa Loompa’s, they will do everything they can to reverse it all. You know, because big oil told them to.
You forgot one of the Oompa Loompa is the founder of the largest EV manufacturer in the world and is pushing for this all EV future?
85ZingoGTR: That oopma loompa (Moscow Musk) doesn’t give a s**t about EV’s. It’s nothing more than a way for him to make more money. Tesla has been and is recently again being fined heavily for spewing toxic materials into the water and ground in California as well as there and other plants with toxic air quality. This is from the same agencies that monitor Ford, GM and all manufacturers.
Musk is a douche bag and only cares about himself and his money.
The EV tax credit is a nonrefundable tax credit offered to taxpayers who purchase qualifying electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles. Nonrefundable tax credits lower your tax liability by the corresponding credit amount but do not result in a refund of any excess credit amount.
If you get it applied at the time of sale, it doesn’t matter what your tax liability is. You get the full amount no matter what. Income eligibility is the only factor at that point.
The U.S. government has now clarified how car dealers can transfer tax credits for new and used EVs directly at the point of sale, ensuring you can benefit instantly from these incentives. But there’s a catch: dealers need to be registered. It’s an encouraging that , but thousands of others have yet to do the necessary work.
You may also get convicted for tax evasion if you don’t fess up.
So, what you’re saying is, even with the government paying people to buy them, people still don’t want them. And this plays out everywhere but China.
One super big problem with that, the Nox EV also looses money while the compass make money. If EV sales were to increase to a point they displaced ICE sales, their price would have to increase to avoid bottom line losses. Currently the Bolt EV looses 3-4K per unit. The NOX EV probably looses 7-10K then. To net a 3-4K profit, your talking 10-14K extra, add that 7500 credit, your at 17-23000 more for a comparable EV, or 50% more the same vehicle, then add in financing options and it becomes unwieldy.
Well, China just banned the outright sale of EV battery-making raw materials to companies in the United States. They were mad because we limited the sale of microchips to their country so they couldn’t advance their government AI capabilities. China said that battery raw materials could be used to advance our military capability.
So, no…EV batteries are not going to get cheaper.
Not surprised. China showing the world once again they cannot be relied on as a reliable trading partner and that they are more than willing to coerce everyone for their own benefit.
That right there is plenty of reason to start weaning ourselves off China. I highly doubt we will bring it all back to the states but plenty of more trustworthy countries willing to trade in the world and willing to take over as materials provider like Chile. So let them keep showing the world their true colors. The world will adapt and so will our industries.
Will the U.S. be added to that list once tariffs are put in place?
Albert Gore III, executive director of ZETA, a U.S. trade group that represents EV companies and mining firms, told Axios this news should bring about more investments in mining and metals projects outside of China, including in the United States. “The impact will be a stronger incentive to accelerate the development of our domestic upstream production capacity and that of our trusted trade partners,” Gore said.
So I say, let them do it. It will incentivize the countries of the world to invest elsewhere outside bad actors that want to use this as a means of coercion. It will help build countries like Chile, Africa, and India to build their manufacturing and mineral supplies at the expense of China.
I’ve said it before. They don’t want trade. They want “you depend on me but we don’t depend on you. So do as I say.”
And what about the expense of one’s home replacement in the event of an unlikely (but not out of the realm of possible) fire caused by your garaged EV vehicle’s battery ?
FUD. Gas cars catch fire at a rate 60x of EVs.
Hahaha. Frank. You crack me up. Well, most of the commenters on here crack me up. They know little and spew a ton. I won’t repeat what John said. You know, because gas and diesel is not flammable and ICE never catch fire now do they. And we all know just how seldom ICE vehicle fires take place, right? WRONG.
Really, pal? Been working with and evaluating Lithium Ion and Lithium Poly batteries with various cell counts, voltage and “S” ratings frequently since 2009. By count, about 37 Lipo “bricks.One of the largest domestic battery distributors consults with me about my market testing. What’s your resume’ ? Repeat: I would never charge a vehicle in a garage attached to a house.
It’s called insurance.
Oh boy, looks like the EV Discord folks are back.
Everyone has known this for years…nothing earth shattering at all
Drill baby drill!
So I read this article thinking how nice that some factual information is being given. And then I started reading the comments. Once again, it reinforced why I seldom come on here any more and have less and less interest in leaving comments. The misinformation and just plain stupid comments that most on here leave is just staggering.
Stay with me for a moment. If we remove the “compliance” EV’s (Spark EV, Ford Focus EV and really even the Nissan Leaf just to name three) and if you research real life accounts of EV users both in the US and over-seas, you will find many EV drivers and/or taxi services using Tesla and Bolt EV’s with well over 200,000 miles and going strong. No battery replacement yet. Although we are at a point where ICE engines will easily go 150,000 miles with little trouble, by that point they are requiring way more upkeep and are polluting way more than when new. In the EV’s, you will see a 10 to 20 % battery degradation, leaving a typical EV with around 220 to 275 miles of range after all those miles. And the best part? Any EV no matter the brand will only get cleaner in time as we convert more and more to renewable energy sources.
You may not like it, but EV’s are the future and are better (now) in most way over ICE. Give it another 5 years and it will be game over. Zero contest for ICE as the EV’s will be even better than now while ICE is at it’s end. They’ve had over 100 years to perfect them and little has changed.
You still have the infrastructure issue for charging away from home. Until that gets resolved, EVs will only be used as “grocery getters” and in some instances “commuters” by those who can charge them at home.
@Jan: I will refer you to the many MANY Youtube channels that will prove you totally wrong.
1. Out of Spec Motoring
2. Out of Spec Reviews
3. TFLEV
4. Spinner EV
5. Jim’s EV Adventures
And that’s just a small number on Youtube alone. One of those channels just did a New York to LA cannonball run in a Porcha EV and broke the record time and that included the charging.
So I have a new method on this site. I’m going to start putting up facts to combat the massive amount of non-facts by people on here just saying stupid stuff.
And that’s the extent of your knowledge ? lol. Just another YouTube jockey here. Hurry up and get back to class.
Oh, Frank. You have zero clue. But you go ahead and keep on keeping on. Just be sure to buy enough emergency supplies and heavy duty sun screen.
I simply put up some factual things than you and Jan and others can easily research. My experience and “knowledge” is probably vastly superior to yours. So put up or shut up.
I drove cross-country in my EV and it’s a non-issue. People like you have zero imagination or willingness to adapt to the 21st century. It’s sad, really.
Well said.
On the plus side, I’m starting to see roughly 50/50 upvotes/downvotes. Which is a vast improvement on this site where pro-ICE or anti-EV comments used to get more like 90% upvotes. And pro-EV comments used to get way more downvotes.
50/50 tells me at least 1/2 the readers now are EV supporters/shoppers.
Want sugar or Sweet N’ Low with that Kool Ade? The demise of the gasoline engine has been predicted for 50 years but guess what- they’re still here!
ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017. You can continue to live in your fantasy world or you can google the truth like any sane, rational human being.
Of course EVERYTHING is true if it’s in the Internet🙄. A lot of things peaked pre-covid and with car prices skyrocketing since 2017 of course there will be fewer sales
OK Tigger. Then put up or shut up. I’m tired of people like you on sites like this saying a bunch of garbage but never backing it up.
So go ahead. Educate us. Give us your proof of anything you say instead of just constantly deriding the rest who don’t believe exactly like you do.
You hate reality.
I really do hope batteries and EV’s do get cheaper. If the US auto industry can sell an EV for $12,000 out the door like China already does, then I’m accepting EV’s as a viable form of transportation for those who want them.
They will never be price competitive with China. But they will be competitive with ICE and be a viable alternative for many drivers.
Ha ha ha, so many EV haters on this site that are terrified by this news.
Reality is, EVs will continue to drop in price while ICEs will continue to increase. And trumps tariffs will only accelerate ICE pricing.
Suffer! I’ll just sit back with my popcorn and enjoy the display of stupidity.
I’m gonna file that one under “wishful thinking.”
So this “Recurrent” Rag is another bought and paid for parakeet-cage liner financed by the Lithium mining Lobby and the EV Lobby. Pure lies from another legacy Media source completely ignoring the incredible Labor COST of replacing an EV battery. So glad to see other readers calling them out on their OBVIOUS LIES !
If you believe batteries are gonna get cheaper you probably believe joe won’t pardon hunter