With the continued development of self-driving systems and artificial intelligence, fully autonomous vehicles are slowly becoming a reality across the automotive industry. While many believe that Level 5 AV technology is the end-all-be-all in the quest to self-driving vehicles, one former General Motors R&D Chief claims that this isn’t necessary.
According to a report from Automotive News, Larry Burns – who led R&D and planning at GM from 1998 to 2009 – doesn’t believe that Level 5 AV technology will happen, instead referring to Level 4 as the end goal of AV vehicles.
For reference, Level 5 indicates that the vehicle performs all driving tasks, and doesn’t require any human interaction or even controls. In contrast, Level 4 allows the driver to override as needed.
“I don’t think Level 5 is ever going to happen,” Former General Motors R&D Chief Larry Burns was quoted as stating. “That should never have been the goal. Look at the aerospace industry. There are times when an aircraft shouldn’t fly and times when a car shouldn’t drive. Level 4 is what the goal is.”
Burns points to developments in AI as the solution to reaching the automotive industry’s autonomous driving objectives.
“The whole future of the industry is about design innovation,” Burns continued. “Because innovation is at the heart of competitive advantage in the industry. When you look at design innovation, you want to focus it on the total experience of the people you are trying to innovate for. AI can give engineers a lot more insight than what companies can get from written surveys. I think you get insight from observing. AI can help everyone become better designers and better innovators.”
It’s worth noting that GM Authority recently reported that The General will merge Ultra Cruise technology with Super Cruise, the Detroit-based automaker’s semi-autonomous driver assistance system. This comes as General Motors has faced increased pushback regarding its development of the technology through Cruise AV units.
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Comments
“I don’t think Level 5 is ever going to happen”
I now know why he’s the former R&D Chief. I’m not saying Level 5 is happening tomorrow, but to say it’s never going to happen is shortsighted. Not exactly the type of foresigtedness you what from your R&D Chief.
Burns retired from the R&D Chief position in 2009. It’s now 2024, 14-to-15 years after he retired. Burns stating in 2024 that he doesn’t think Level 5 is going to happen is nothing more than his opinion.
I believe he sits on the board and is an advisor for Waymo.
I think we’ll eventually see Lvl5 but not any time soon that it is a meaningful goal vs investment.
EV and AV have been trendy money sucks the past 5 years and manufacturers are learning that now and adjusting expectations to reality
I think his point is that we can’t reach it from a legal perspective, not a technological perspective.
It could be like nuclear fusion though, always 20 years in the future. One thing I am seeing, everyone thinks AI is around the corner. And yet, when I see some of the really really really stupid mistakes it makes, it tells me it is a 1 year old. Now how fast the 1 year old develops into an adult is anyone’s guess. And I am in the IC biz. I totally get you can make a chip with a billion transistors for under a buck. But the “how” of how we think is still unknown. And “that” is the secret sauce, not more transistors.
But think about it. The worst AI you’ll ever use is the AI you’re using today. I can only get better. I have no problem if it takes 100 years for Level 5 driving. The point is it’s possible, just not today. He used an absolute saying it will never be possible.
As an R&D Chief, you say it’s not possible today, but we’re working on the steps to get us there (i.e. level 3).
I’m sure nuclear fusion will be possible as well, someday, since the sun does it. We just don’t have the capability yet.
Anything and everything COULD be possible with an ulimited timeframe… He’s retired, and was expressing an opinion on foreseable R&D goals of an Auto manufacturer. Corporation’s don’t hire R&D directors who direct their department (and company resources) to pursue 100 year in the future theoretical possibilities; research Universities fill that roll. Please continue to argue over the semantics of the word “ever”…
Not sure I’d agree. Some of the older processors had fewer bugs. Spectre is just one example of a “better” chip causing security issues. Even google search I find less “correct” than it used to be. Now it is mired in ads and SEO causing hiccups. And for AV I find it almost absurd that because it is software, and can be updated daily, it is basically a rolling beta. And as a guy who’s been in software for decades now, sometimes the latest beta is a dud. Just because it is all but free to roll out a new version with OTA, doesn’t mean you should. Imagine if drugs were tested like AV software. We’d just give new drugs to actual people and see what happens. Fortunately, that biz is more careful with lives.
ITs never going to happen unless everything in a controlled area is Autonomous. If you have a city that all cars or any vehicles is autonomous then it might work. Unless you build a big new city or one city says no driver cars then maybe yes. That’s a big maybe. It might just be group of rich people nobody wants to be around.
Whoa you are stupid level 5 is not possible even tesla engineers have said so give up no one wants level 5 auto pilot is better.
He is absolutely correct. In spite of a future where it can be statiscally proven that AV’s are “safer” than human piloted vehicles, it is a rock solid fact that litigation efforts holding the “manufacturer’s” liable (for any and every AV injury or death that will certainly occur) will create a hard hurdle to L5 execution. It will never be broadly adopted or permitted on the public transportation grid. The only possible profile would be within an isolated and 100% closed roadway system that would exclude any human operated units.
Yup, airports and theme parks.
Unpopular opinion:
Regardless of whether or not it will happen, self-driving cars is a uniquely North American problem. Most modern countries have robust, safe, and clean transit systems where many of the trains are automated.
Rather than waiting on companies to build self-driving cars, maybe people should get their elected officials to rebuild public transit systems that were torn down in the mid-20th century. It’s shockingly more realistic and won’t run the automotive industry into the ground in the process.
I read something a few years back about development of a software platform for vehicles to communicate with each other. Future stuff for sure but that might go a long way to making level 5 autonomous vehicles a reality.
I think V2V and vehicle to infrastructure (stop lights, speed signs, direction signs, etc) will be needed for L5.
I estimate that such systems may come to further increase the safety margins and a more likely use of them is emergency collision-avoidance systems in human-driven cars. They’ll get a lot more accurate with V2V communication. They’re not required for Level 4 autonomy. Consider that Waymo has already operated fully driverless vehicles in a suburb of Phoenix, AZ since 2018, i.e. 6 years!!
They won’t give up no one will be owning a self driving car that can drive anywere there are countless other sources even from MIT that say it is impossible it will only be shuttles I hope they give up and make auto pilot which is the future.
Why quote a dinasaur??? Although he was the Father of the skateboard concept, which GM left on the shelf until other companies moved with it. Ahead of its time. Must be boring down in Naples.
What is at stake here is NOT simply having an automobile drive itself. The entire country will have to be surveyed and the entire grid of ALL roadways included. There can be no portion of the country left undone. Then, drivers will have to be certified to do this. However, anywhere and anytime you want to go anywhere you will first have to file a driving plan and submit it for clearance. That is the same thing the government does with pilots, and that is exactly what laziness is trying to allow to happen with automobiles. Every six months a driver will have to present themself to a govt. inspector for a semi-annual evaluation, at the driver’s expense. Failure is immediate denial of the privileges until the driver passes a re-check. How many drivers will be willing to pay the price for “hands free driving” at that expense? Of course, drivers will accept any incident with another vehicle as “driver’s error” and will not be able to contest any moving violation.. Penalties will be far more severe in attempts to restrain their failures to comply. Who among us is willing to go through all this just to drive “hands free?”
I’ve ridden in a level 5 taxi in Phoenix. They exist today for limited functions and in geofenced locations.
That’s not level 5, level 5 does not have geofencing.
Correct, that’s level 0
OR ….. you could man-up, tell single indulgent mommy, “Goodbye” … embrace your own destiny … and DRIVE yourself .
This basically proves my theory that Legacy Auto will be licensing Full Self Driving Software from Tesla in the future.
I feel even more confident that my prediction will become reality.
Right because Tesla FSD is right around the corner and has been tested autonomously for years /s
Ralph Nader, consumer safety advocate specializing in auto safety, a year ago on Bad Faith Podcast: “Self driving cars cannot be made safe for driving with human drivers, or in inclement weather, or in construction zones. Not in our lifetime.”
But maybe you’ve noticed there are quite a few autonomous truck outfits out there now? Carmakers are happy to give up the ghost on self driving cars, they’re only missing out on the revenue autonomous taxis would bring them. It’s a loss they can live with. Trucking companies on the other hand are extremely hot to eliminate labor costs. It’s the only way they will be able to fulfill Wall Street’s perennial goal of infinitely increasing profits. But driverless trucks cannot be made safe to drive with human drivers. So expect a push to make highways off limits to human drivers. Coming soon.
Yeah I don’t think so. Heck one just drag a person 20 feet before it even stop.
An accident originally caused by a human driver. In a hit run accident where the person was thrown into the path of the AV suddenly.
Who knows if a human driver would have done better in the same situation.
40,000 people died in traffic accidents last year on us roads.
“For reference, Level 5 indicates that the vehicle performs all driving tasks, and doesn’t require any human interaction or even controls. In contrast, Level 4 allows the driver to override as needed.”
That’s a really poor description of the levels.
Level 5, automatically performs all driving task and in all conditions and environments that human drivers could operate in.
Level 4 has some limitations to the environment or conditions or locations, it can automatically perform all driving tasks, and has a way to automatically hand over control back to a human driver when those limits occur, or will stop safely until it can continue.
So geofenced autonomous vehicles are level 4.
And, it’s gonna be unlikely that all AVs will be capable of driving on off road trails, as not even all cars are capable of that, so they will mostly be level 4, with limits placed via geofencing or other technique to prevent them from going where they can’t go.
In order to do Level 5 autonomous cars, you need to make massive changes to the road infrastructure because to implement such a system safely you need to eliminate unpredictable human behavior in the form of pedestrians, bicyclists, and other drivers. When your own local governments won’t even shell out to fix potholes you expect them to spend billions to make these infrastructure modifications? Yeah not gonna happen. Nobody alive today will see this fantasy world of unicorns and self-driving cars.
He didn’t say it would never be possible. He said it would prob never happen.. Many Hollywood movies give good examples.. Spooners’ Audi in iRobot was a level 4 vehicle, it whisked you away autonomously at over 200 mph, but when needed, you could take control, eg. robots attacking your vehicle. Even the Johnny Cab in Total Recall had a joystick for the robot driver.. A truly safe and trusted level 5 would require a complete infrastructure overhaul, as seen with the transports in Minority Report, which realistically is farrrr into the future.
If you are telling me a car will take me from A to B without me touching any controls, then I would say ok, if you (the manufacturer) will insure it. Thats a problem
It is not correct that “Level 4 allows the driver to override as needed.” The only difference between Level 4 and Level 5 is that Level 4 allows geofencing, while Level 5 doesn’t.
And is impossible I am tired of fools thinking it is autopilot will be the end result.