GM could lose market share in China if it fails to accelerate its transition to EVs, a recent study from Greenpeace suggests, with Chinese automakers standing to make significant gains as foreign companies continue to move slowly with their electrification efforts.
The “era of gas and diesel vehicles is coming to an end, and EV sales are surging” according to the report from Greenpeace East Asia.
GM China’s Buick Electra E5
The study claims GM is currently following a strategy that will result in it losing three to six percentage points of market share in China by 2030. The predicted loss is relative to its average market share between 2019 and 2021. Greenpeace says it used Monte Carlo simulation methods and scenario analysis to derive this and other predictions.
The study also claims that China’s rapid switch to EVs will leave those foreign automakers slowest to electrify with “stranded” ICE vehicle production capacity. The study named GM as the company with the most exposure to this risk, with approximately 1.78 million units’ worth of internal combustion engine production capacity likely to be left idled by China’s EV transition.
Looking to the larger picture, the study predicts about 33 percent of all ICE production capacity in China will be unused by 2030. It predicts Volkswagen will be the second biggest loser behind GM as a result of electrification, with 1.42 million units worth of idle ICE capacity and a similar three to seven percent drop in market share.
Bao Hang, a Greenpeace campaigner, summed up the organization’s conclusions by stating, “industry leaders like Toyota and Volkswagen must speed up their transition to new energy vehicles or risk ceding business to all-electric brands like BYD. Rapid electrification is necessary to stay relevant in China’s auto market.’
GM currently has two joint ventures in China. One of these, SAIC-GM, sells the Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac brands. The other, SAIC-GM-Wuling, markets the Baojun and Wuling brands.
The Wuling brand logo
When it comes to GM electric vehicles sold in the Chinese market, Chevy currently sells a single EV, the Chevy Menlo crossover, in China. Buick’s electric lineup consists of three models, the Velite 6 PHEV, Velite 6 EV and the new Electra E5, though a fourth, the Electra E4, will be released later this month. Cadillac sells the Cadillac Lyriq.
Turning to the EV models produced by GM’s SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture, Baojun currently sells the KiWi EV and the new Yep crossover, and will soon launch the Yep mini pickup. Wuling has four electric models in production, including the Hong Guang MINI EV, the Nano EV, the Air EV, and the Bingo (or Bin Guo) hatchback.
Some of GM’s individual electric models have been enthusiastically received in China, with 8,000 orders placed for the Buick Electra E5 in the first ten days after online ordering opened, setting a new record. However, GM’s overall sales in China plunged by 25 percent in Q1 2023.
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Comments
Predicting GM to lose 6-8 percentage points in its largest market, China, by 2030 is quite modest as GM China sales decreased 25 percent to 462,200 units in Q1 2023 and anticipate Q2 to be a ~30% decline. I expect them to lose at least 5 percentage points in 2023 alone. 1.5M new energy vehicle (NEVs) were sold in China in Q1 which will continue to grow as stricter emissions standards take effect July 1st. Therefore, expect Q3/4 to be even worse for GM and other legacy automakers. Through its JVs, GM accounts for ~5% of the rapidly expanding NEV market with about 80k BEVs sold in Q1. The vast majority of sales are derived from the tri-venture Wuling Mini which GM makes about $14/car. Stellantis/Jeep already declared bankruptcy in China with more OEMs to follow. GM better get their sh!t together or they’re going to lose China and be relegated to a regional light truck maker.
So basically this report is stating what I have been saying for years about EV adoption.
I still do not understand why this is so hard to grasp. Automakers need to shift and do so ASAP or die off like Nokia and others.
Automakers that try to stay too long into the ICE manufacturing game (Besides Large Trucks and SUV’s due to the profits) will not be alive for too long. An Automaker cannot keep splitting its R&D budget into two completely different forms of propulsion systems while other Automakers are spending ALL of their R&D on just one Technology. Logic would dictate that the one splitting the Funds will not make it because they wont be great at BEV’s
Also, the automakers making ICE will have a limited market to sell said vehicles as China and Europe will not be buying them.
There will also be ever increasing emissions Regulations that will just be way too costly to keep up with.
I will stick to my prediction that by 2035 ICE will be very niche. It will be High End Sports Cars and Heavy Duty vehicles. And even Heavy Duty might shift to Hydrogen one day.
China and Europe won’t be buying them? Say that when their electric grid starts failing.
Greenpeace? They do Automotive Journalism now? Lol. Okay…
China is all-in on EVs. Buick has been a Top-Dog over there for years and needs an all EV lineup…
Not for any “EV zealot” reason Or because I give a shi*… It’s just what they want to buy and they will overpay for it willingly…. Run 3 Shifts Mary and push out all the EVs you can throw together….
Forget the cheap crap…. Push the Buicks heavily.
PS: make the next Camaro ICE. ( you will thank me for that advice. )
True journalism in the West died decades ago, now it consists of pushing political narratives, hence Greenpeace providing their 2 cents on the auto industry.
Lol, ditto, I stopped reading when I got to the “greenpeace” part. If a commies lips are moving, you know they’re lying. GM stands to loose much in China, but more in the way McDonald’s lost everything to Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. China will likely seize all current GM assets when they invade Taiwan, or might just do it tomorrow because it’s the CCP.