The influence of California’s pollution standards and vehicle sales regulations, particularly the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) rule, may result in electric vehicles making up two thirds of new passenger vehicle sales throughout the entire U.S. by 2035, according to new research.
The change would result in improved air quality, health benefits, more jobs, and consumer savings, according to the research published by Energy Innovation. The research firm’s “Energy Policy Simulator” predicted electric vehicles could comprise 81 percent of U.S. vehicle sales by 2050 if the Advanced Clean Cars II rule is widely adopted.
Key to the predictions is the 2022 decision by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to allow California to set its own greenhouse gas (GHG) standards and zero emission vehicle sales mandate, and for other states to follow suit. Before this decision, California could not set emissions or electric vehicles sales regulations stricter than those imposed by the U.S. federal government.
As a result, California developed the ACC II rule, phasing out the sale of new ICE vehicles in the Golden State with a 100 percent ban on new ICE sales by 2035. The rule does not, however, result in 100 percent electric vehicles on California roads in 2035, since it does not ban use of existing ICE vehicles or prevent used ICE vehicle sales. New plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can also continue to be sold.
Currently, 16 other states across the United States follow California’s stricter California Air Resources Board (CARB) emissions standards rather than the less stringent federal emissions standards. The legislatures of these states are now mulling whether to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II ban on ICE passenger vehicle sales by 2035.
The 16 states following CARB standards and possibly the ACC II rule are Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, and Washington. The District of Columbia also follows California’s standards.
The statistical modeling published by Energy Innovation shows that the Clean Vehicle Credit introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act, which gives up to a $7,500 federal tax credit to buyers of new electric vehicles along with support for EV infrastructure, could boost the effects of the ACC II ban on ICE sales.
If the other 16 states (and the District of Columbia) using CARB emissions standards also ban new ICE vehicle sales by 2035, this means 66 percent of vehicles sold in the U.S. will be battery-electric by 2035, Energy Innovation‘s research predicts. This would then rise to 81 percent by 2050.
Notably, adoption of the ACC II ICE vehicle sales ban would counteract the effects of the Clean Vehicle Credit’s expiry in 2033. Without the sales ban, Energy Innovation projects that only 42 percent of U.S. passenger vehicle sales would be of electric vehicles once the federal tax credit sunsets a decade from now, rather than close to 66 percent.
Banning new ICE vehicle sales across 16 more states would provide several benefits according to Energy Innovation. The research firm claims ACC II adoption in these 16 states would prevent 5,000 premature deaths and 160,000 asthma attacks by 2050, along with creating 300,000 new jobs in domestic EV production and other sectors.
Energy Innovation also says adoption of electric vehicles provides households with 40 percent lower vehicle maintenance costs and 60 percent lower fuel costs for vehicles. Greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 1.3 billion metric tons by 2050. A Keck School of Medicine of USC study recently found California drivers’ widespread adoption of electric vehicles may have resulted in  a 3.2-percent drop in asthma-related emergency room visits and a “small suggestive reduction” in nitrogen dioxide levels.
GM previously outlined plans to stop its sales of new ICE passenger vehicles by 2035, while 40 percent of the company’s U.S. models will be battery-electric by the end of 2025. The General’s use of U.S.-made Ultium batteries to power its electric vehicles may also position it to offer EVs qualifying for the $7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit than its competitors in the near-term.
At least six GM models are expected to meet the fully-implemented Clean Vehicle Credit qualifications. These include the Cadillac Lyriq, the Chevy Equinox EV, the Chevy Blazer EV, the Chevy Silverado EV as well as the Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV.
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