EV Sales In The United States Have Reached A Tipping Point, Says Analysis43
EV sales in the U.S. are on the rise, driven by things like technology improvements and high fuel prices. Now, according to one analysis, electric vehicle ownership is poised to pivot towards mass adoption.
In a recent analysis, Bloomberg says that the current 5-percent EV adoption rate in the U.S. is the threshold that indicates mass-adoption is soon to follow, with rapidly changing preferences among consumers expected to drive further EV sales. Bloomberg likens the EV adoption threshold to smartphones, with early adopters quickly overtaken by mainstream users in an S-shaped adoption curve.
The recent Bloomberg analysis looked at EV adoption rates around the world, with the U.S. joining China and Europe in moving past the 5-percent EV adoption rate threshold. These three countries are the largest car markets in the world, and account for 90 percent of the world’s EV sales.
In total, the analysis looked at 19 countries that have passed the threshold thus far, and if the U.S. follows the trend set by the other 18 countries included in the analysis, mass adoption could be on the way, with the prediction that a quarter of new vehicle sales may be electric by the end of the 2025 calendar year.
Some of the roadblocks to mass EV adoption are universal across markets, and include a lack of public charging infrastructure, high vehicle prices, limited vehicle supplies, and a lack of product knowledge among consumers. However, once the 5-percent threshold is reached, sales quickly ramp up, with Bloomberg pointing to examples like South Korea, Norway, and China.
The role of federal incentives and strict pollution standards are also critical factors. This includes the U.S., where the Biden administration issued an executive order last year that calls for half of all new vehicle sales to be electrified by 2030. In this case, “electrified” includes both fully electric vehicles, as well as plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Meanwhile, GM is set to launch 30 new fully electric models by 2025, making 40 percent of its product portfolio electrified.
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Sorry if Bloomberg said it then it’s a lie. I wouldn’t trust a thing that “news” source says.
Come on Man…..thats the primary winner of the Federated States of Micronesia…..
Are we really going to have a choice? Even people like me will be “convinced” to go EV if the choice is walking.
This is not going to be a mass migration in one year.
The sales will grow with more models and more lower prices on these models over time.
By the time most of us have to give up ice they will have models that will suit most our needs.
Keep in mind ice is not going to completely vanish over night either.
To me the biggest threat is this subscription bs on car options. You will be charged for heated seats by the month? Toyota already is charging for remote entry this way.
There will always be used vehicles available.
Plenty of great 2000s era cars that you can drive for the rest of your life.
I will preface this with saying I am not for or against EVs. If I am in the market for a new car in a few years, ICE and EV will most likely be on my shopping list.
Your comment is spot on. Most manufacturers have a goal of 2035 for all light vehicles. Even when GM hits 40% electric by 2030, that means there is still 60% ICE powered vehicles. If someone held out as long as they could before buying an electric car, for example – a MY35 GM whatever, most cars when well maintained will last a good 20-25 years or more (this includes proper rust protection in the rust belt states.) That is 2060 before the car would need replaced. Most the people complaining about EVs will be long gone way before the last ICE vehicle is available. By this time, EV battery advancement and charging speeds/availability will be significantly improved. I bet by 2050, we will see charging time in under 5 minutes or even instantaneously, and EV ranges of well over 500 miles. Also, I can see companies starting to pop up and restore and refurbish ICE vehicles in the future.
Now take away all tax credits and HOV Lane incentives and lets see how sales are.
Tesla ran out of credits long ago. Do you really think that someone who can afford a $90K Tesla cares about a tax credit? If you can’t afford a $90K vehicle, you probably can’t afford an $82.5K ($90k minus $7.5K tax credit) vehicle
Just to be clear, the tax credits are not what you think. The tax credit is only used for your tax bill. Its not a check at the end of the year. if you receive a tax credit, and at the end of the year, you owe taxes, the credit is applied to what you owe. if what you owe is less than the total tax credit, it can be applied to the following year. If you don’t owe any taxes at the end of the year, you don’t get anything extra
Tax credits still involves tax payer money. Whether you pay less or get more money back, it still is a benefit that people who purchase gas vehicles don’t get. The tax payer funded government should not favor certain industries.
Tesla still sells carbon credits to the tune of billions per year. And if you don’t think HOV lane status is valuable, you’ve never lived in Cal. A woman I know (now retired) bought *only* vehicles that allowed her access to HOV with just her in the car. People were sticking dummies in their cars to get into HOV with just a driver. The HOV pass is priceless to some.
Just last week, a woman was given a ticket for using the HOV lane. She’s now fighting the ticket, claiming that since she’s pregnant that qualifies as an extra passenger. This is no joke.
You’re right, you couldn’t pay me to live in that totally screwed up state!
While they’re at it, take away gas subsidies and see Americans pay $10.00 a gallon like they do everywhere else in the world.
Or take away gas taxes and pay about 1 buck less per gallon. Have you ever wondered why gas prices are so different between states? State part of the gas tax. And that everywhere else is because in the EU, the tax is much higher than in the US. Let us flip the argument, when are EV’s going to start paying road taxes like ICE vehicles do?
Not the point of my last post. It’s a ridiculous hypothetical that is always brought up when talking about EV sales. Why would the fed take away EV credits and tax breaks when it’s been doing the same for oil and gas?
He doesn’t like when you say that. Just ignore him he’s nothing but a troll.
In my state, EV registration is $225/yr more than ICE registration.
Really? The only places that pay $10 for gas is Hong Kong and the Netherlands, and those are much smaller nations than ours.
No tax incetive for me and no HOV driving. I just like my EV
You mean governmental force adoption of EV’s.
How is the government forcing you to buy EVs? It’s certainly not forcing car companies to make them.
California is outlawing ICE engine sales by 2035 and with gas @$5 a gallon the government is indirectly forcing people into E/V’s
well most states dont have HOV lanes, and GM and Tesla dont have any incentives (Federal at least)
RunFons – I was speaking of tax credits for the people who buy the vehicles. And yes Tesla does get federal tax breaks. Tesla and SpaceX have received more than $7 billion in government contracts alone and billions more in tax breaks, loans and other subsidies, an analysis by Grid found. In recent years, Tesla has sold at least $6 billion worth of government-backed electric vehicle credits, Grid found.
I think most people don’t know about carbon credits, which tesla sells to companies that don’t make enough EV’s. And as you say it is billions of dollars in play. I think stellatis(sp) paid 2B last year to tesla.
This price is still way too high. Prices need to come down, and a lot, hopefully if it’s like other technology that it gets cheaper as the years go by.
The Chevy Bolt is one of the cheapest but people like me.. prefer trucks over a small compact crossover. I don’t want to spend +$100,000 on truck and on any vehicle in general, and I thinks it’s just stupid high.
And gas prices.. it’s not Putin price jump its a strategically set plan by the Biden Administration.. every decision he made has been a bad decision..
But about electric and gas cars. Gas vehicles aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. I can see owning both as a norm and I hope that’s all it will be.
And people who continue to use fossile fuels to get around are part of a strategically set plan to burn up the planet.
You use fossil fuel every single day and will continue to do so every single day for the rest of your life. Fossil fuel, in one way or another, was/is used to manufacture and/or transport everything you own, use, eat, or throw away. And this isn’t going to change any time soon.
The Bloomberg study ignored the material cost issue. It is widely “assumed” that EV production costs (and thus EV prices) will drop due to volume efficiencies. While these volume efficiencies will happen, they will be more than offset by material cost increased as the world’s automakers ramp up volume to 10 times what it is today (5% to 50%). This will drastically increase the prices of lithium, cobalt and other scarce EV-required materials. The average price of an EV in the US is now about $56k and US automakers just have announced another round of price increases. The volume of EVs cannot reach 50% of the current market volume at an average price of over $56k.
Wishful thinking considering recession and inflation crashing the party.
Have you seen the price market adjustment increase in PHEV’s. Few will buy an “electric vehicle” for thousands more hoping to recoup future money.
The talk in this country is so negative towards EVs, except for the separate country of California, it is hard to believe that any car manufacturer would throw all their eggs into this basket. We will live to see GM’s stock hit rock bottom when this current administration is gone and with it government subsidies.
California’s days are numbered.
Nuclear Holocaust or a mega earthquake will bring it down forever.
Or running out of water.
Sorry to say the science does not back up your emotional feelings!
When oil starts to flow in this country again, and it eventually will. EVs will be sitting on used car lots everywhere with signs that say MAKE OFFER NO \ REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED.
EV fans must realize that there are 276 million gas hungry vehicles on the street. Eleven million trucks alone sold in 2020. For GM and that idiot bunch in Washington to believe this will a all end with the stroke of a pen, or more subsidies is sheer ignorance. They are as near too pushing this country into a deep depression as they can get. Already people are fearing the loss of retirement money with the collapse of 401K reserves. I think a lot of people are not realizing how bad it can get. Just take a look at Sri Lanka this morning. A lot of poor, radical decisions left that country destitute.
LOL, this is BS, I still don’t want one or do I know anyone else who does either. This “analyst” must live in la la land, aka California.
Resistance Is Futile – You Will Be Assimilated
Seriously, my Chevy Bolt was cheap, quick, and I don’t see myself going back anytime soon. Here in So Cal gas is between $6 – $6.50/gallon. It makes economic sense as I drive 20k mile/year. The Car Pool lane access is very nice as well, but not the deciding factor. The Car Pool lane access for electric vehicles ends for everyone in September 2025.
and it hasn’t caught fire…yet <- Humor, not intended to be a troll talking point.
It's a great answer for some, and likely a better answer for many if they will try it. I don't plan on forcing others to drive what I do. Choose for yourself, it's still up to you. So if you really hate electric cars, you don't have to drive one.
The EV adoption trend is totally dependent upon mandatory government regulations and Federal Executive orders. All this push is further enhanced by state and federal leadership. If the Dems prevail the EV trends and targets are imminent. Which I predict.
Mass adoption of EV’s? Wish in one hand and Crap in the other and See which one fills up First. Or, You can’t make a Silk Purse out of a Sows Ear. Milliniels will have to give these some Deep Thought.
“MASS ADOPTION” ???? !!!!!
This is a serious question… Is Big Beautiful GM currently MAKING ANY EVs? Or are they just tinkering out One Hummer this month and then One Lyriq the next – and maybe 2 bolts besides?
Still waiting for my plain jane 2wd Lyriq, and also the replacement battery I was promised for my over year old 2022 Bolt EUV.
GM is not being truthful about EVs. They know, like others have said, they are far from being practical or for the most part perfected. They endlessly report about cars that a very few have actually been put in service. This whole EV sham is being done to appease a radical Green happy government printing endless cash to subsidize anyone who will help make their dream come true. True GM loyalists are becoming thoroughly disgusted with this company’s management. They feel betrayed!