EV sales in the U.S. are on the rise, driven by things like technology improvements and high fuel prices. Now, according to one analysis, electric vehicle ownership is poised to pivot towards mass adoption.
In a recent analysis, Bloomberg says that the current 5-percent EV adoption rate in the U.S. is the threshold that indicates mass-adoption is soon to follow, with rapidly changing preferences among consumers expected to drive further EV sales. Bloomberg likens the EV adoption threshold to smartphones, with early adopters quickly overtaken by mainstream users in an S-shaped adoption curve.
The recent Bloomberg analysis looked at EV adoption rates around the world, with the U.S. joining China and Europe in moving past the 5-percent EV adoption rate threshold. These three countries are the largest car markets in the world, and account for 90 percent of the world’s EV sales.
In total, the analysis looked at 19 countries that have passed the threshold thus far, and if the U.S. follows the trend set by the other 18 countries included in the analysis, mass adoption could be on the way, with the prediction that a quarter of new vehicle sales may be electric by the end of the 2025 calendar year.
Some of the roadblocks to mass EV adoption are universal across markets, and include a lack of public charging infrastructure, high vehicle prices, limited vehicle supplies, and a lack of product knowledge among consumers. However, once the 5-percent threshold is reached, sales quickly ramp up, with Bloomberg pointing to examples like South Korea, Norway, and China.
The role of federal incentives and strict pollution standards are also critical factors. This includes the U.S., where the Biden administration issued an executive order last year that calls for half of all new vehicle sales to be electrified by 2030. In this case, “electrified” includes both fully electric vehicles, as well as plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Meanwhile, GM is set to launch 30 new fully electric models by 2025, making 40 percent of its product portfolio electrified.