In case you haven’t heard, U.S. tech giant Apple is reportedly working on an all-electric, fully autonomous vehicle. Now, investment bank Morgan Stanley has predicted that the upcoming Apple car will have a major long-term effect on the broader automotive industry.
Per a recent report from AppleInsider, which cites a pair of investor notes, Morgan Stanley predicts that the upcoming Apple car will be the “ultimate EV bear case” with regard to rival automotive companies and stocks. That includes General Motors.
While Apple has kept its cards close to the chest with regard to details on its new autonomous vehicle, rumors have swirled for years about the tech giant’s foray into the automotive sphere, with reports that the project has been an on-again, off-again affair. Most recently, however, Bloomberg reported that Apple could officially launch the fully autonomous Apple car as early as the 2025 calendar year.
With regard to the broader autonomous vehicle market, Morgan Stanley analysts Adam Jonas predicts that sales will be slow at first, but will quickly grow. The delay in sales growth will be the result of a litany of major technological, legal, and regulatory roadblocks.
For the moment, Jonas predicts that fully autonomous vehicle sales will be around 100,000 units by the 2025 calendar year, with the majority of sales taking place outside of the U.S. That could include the upcoming Apple car, as well as other vehicles. However, by 2030, total sales figures for fully autonomous vehicles are predicted to rise to 1.8 million units, with 0.5 percent of global miles traveled taking place in a driverless vehicle. Those figures may quickly ramp up afterwards, reaching 7.6 percent of global miles covered by 2040, and 47 percent of global miles covered in 2050.
Critically, the Morgan Stanley analyst also predicts that the Apple car will likely be some sort of service or shared vehicle, possibly as part of a subscription, as opposed to a vehicle owned by an individual.
Back in January of 2020,General Motors debuted its own all-electric, fully autonomous ride-sharing vehicle, dubbed Cruise Origin. Utilizing GM’s latest Ultium battery and motor technology, Cruise Origin is expected to enter production at the recently opened GM Factory Zero plant next year.