Sales of electric vehicles in the US, China and Europe will outpace internal combustion and hybrid vehicle sales by as early as 2033, according to a recent study conducted by Ernst & Young.
Ernst & Young used its so-called “EY Mobility Lens Forecaster,” to determine future EV demand, which is described as “an artificial intelligence (AI) powered forecast modeling tool that provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through 2050.”
The forecasting tool found that by 2033, combined EV sales will outpace that of all other powertrain types. Europe will lead this charge, with EY predicting European EV sales “will surpass those of other powertrains,” by as early as 2028. The same will happen in China by 2033, followed by the US in 2036. Europe will also lead EV sales volumes until 2031, at which point China will take the EV sales volume lead and maintain it through to at least 2050.
“A mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever,” concluded Ernst & Young’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, Randall Miller. “While the automotive industry has begun to more fully embrace the move toward electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected.”
New car buyers will help move this trend forward, Ernst & Young says. The business advisory firm says that nearly one-third of non-car owners planned to buy a car in the next six months (19 percent plan to buy new, while 12 percent will buy used), and about half of those are millennials. Among current car owners, as well as non-car owners, 30 percent said they’d prefer a non-ICE vehicle for their next purchase – which would include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or EVs.
This study will be good news for General Motors, which is investing heavily in both EV and hydrogen fuel cell technology. GM will introduce 30 new EVs globally by 2025, which will include cars, trucks and crossovers from its Chevy, Buick, Cadillac and GMC brands. The automaker believes it will have a competitive advantage with regard to electrification technology going forward, as well,l thanks to the introduction of proprietary technologies like its Ultium Drive family of electric motors and Ultium battery pack design.
“We are transitioning to an all-electric portfolio from a position of strength and we’re focused on growth,” GM CEO Mary Barra said of the company’s EV transition last year. “We can accelerate our EV plans because we are rapidly building a competitive advantage in batteries, software, vehicle integration, manufacturing and customer experience.”
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Comments
Maybe the politicians and automakers might want to solve the lack of sustainable electric supply before jumping off the EV cliff…….today’s headline in California…..”California Asks Residents to Avoid Charging Electric Cars Amid Power Grid Strain”
I did a quick Google search of the headline “California Asks Residents to Avoid Charging Electric Cars Amid Power Grid Strain” and found that both Newsmax (a right wing propaganda machine successfully sued for false claims about the 2020 election) AND Epoch Times (a Chinese cult conservative propaganda machine) reported that and both were debunked by USA Today. Get better news sources next time.
Yes, USA Today a real reliable source – LOL
Charles, member12,
Right on the money!!!
The govt, gm et al are DREAMING……
And it will cost the citizens of America DEARLY!!!!
AND still cant work.
Look up the real engineering facts as these 2
stated….. the correct facts arent posted all over like Narrative s are!!!
Yeah, and Google and Facebook repressed any reports or comments citing the Wuhan Lab as the likely source of Covid-19. And your reliable MSM fell right into line and poo-pooed it for months crying “racism” if anyone so much as suggested the lab leak possibility – pimping their China reverent woke agenda over truth. Who could forget the fake Russiagate witch hunt and the list goes on and on. Could it be your news sources are the actual propaganda machines?
We were asked to conserve electricity; to cut back on ALL uses, especially power hungry appliances. EV chargers are undisputedly power hungry and put a heavy load on the grid especially during peak early evening hours. The headline ain’t spin. The Epoch Times is one of the few reliable sources of untainted, unbiased information and critical analysis left on the planet.
Yet we are abandoning all sources of energy production that are appropriate for base load generation….
Until we solve that, EV’s will be a literal drain on our regulation-squeezed energy infrastructure. If you want widespread EV adoption but you are against natural gas generators or nuclear reactors, you aren’t being practical. Wind and Solar are not ideal for base load generation in much of the country, and the costs of retrofitting homes and businesses for energy storage will be extremely painful.
That is an accurate statement,
so how accurate has ernst & young been in the past? they are more known for accounting than prognostications.
This is paid propaganda. The more EV garbage you read the more you’ll eventually be ok with EVs even if you don’t buy one. You see this now with most indoctrination.
I have been stating for years that once Pickup Trucks become EV’s and people realize just how much money they will save ICE will quickly start dying off. Everyone laughed at Steve Jobs but once people got to use the iPhone, living without a Smartphone was not going to cut it. I will say it again, Disruptive Tech always hits that inevitable S Curve and ICE will be pretty much become a Niche player in the Consumer vehicle segment.
Ummm a phone doesn’t compare to a car
Uuuuuuuuum it was an example of a disruptive Technology that people now refuse to live without one.
That will become the case for EV’s as well. I didn’t compare a Car to an iPhone.
this tech is not disruptive.
if not for govt subsidies and legislation mandating a sales quota, EVs would be absolutely dead.
no one forced you to buy a smartphone.
@Steve
Not disruptive?
You are talking about a shift that is one of the biggest in our lifetime. We are going to transition from Drilling, refining, transporting, and pumping Gasoline to simply plugging a cord into your vehicle. It will dramatically change the landscape of economics around the World to say the least. If this shift isn’t Disruptive I would love to know what you consider to be disruptive then?
Also you do realize that Big Oil is HUGELY subsidized by our Government correct? Like one of the most subsidized things our Government spends on (Both Sides) and not just with money either. How many lives have been lost around the World for Crude Oil?
Nobody is forcing you to purchase anything. You can buy an ICE until they are no longer offered but you can always buy used. It is your choice.
Nobody has ever promised that Tech will always remain the same. We went from Steam to Oil and now from Oil we will move to Batteries.
yes, ev’s are disruptive but the disruption is not consumer driven. it is being driven by public policy.
nobody had to force anyone to buy a smart phone. when the automobile came out, nobody forced all horses to be sterlized.
if ev’s were truly so much better than ICE vehicles, govts wouldn’t have to write laws or offer huge incentives for customers to buy them.
Exactly.
Except … make a difference between different sorts of EVs:
• BEV or Battery Electric Vehicles
• FCEV or Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
I think BEV are a dead end, while the future belongs to FCEV.
For any kind of EV, the supply of electric energy in the rolling car is the problem. Todays batteries have a much higher energy density then the lead-acid batteries used a century or more ago, but IMHO the energy density of even the best batteries is still too low.
Until the Evs can match ICE vehicles in price, range, and charge time, public charging availability, and charging time, people will live without Evs.
@Tigger
The only thing that EV’s haven’t leapfrogged ICE vehicles on as of right now is the Charging Time in comparison to Refueling. Fastest so far is 15 minutes from 10% to 80%
I may take longer on Trips to charge then you to refuel but I never have to go for Oil Changes and waste hours of my time every 3K Miles sooooooo I am cool with Charging longer on my trips.
That will keep getting better. But I do agree it needs to be figured out quickly. I believe that Charging will get down to like 10 minutes. Plus I can watch YouTube or something while I wait those 15 minutes to charge if no available facilities for food are available.
Potentially in the not too distant future, you can keep plugging into many places while you stop for say Groceries, movies, the Mall, and sporting events. The possibilities are endless. This is just starting.
I predicted this years ago!
EV yes, but BEV probably not.
EV = Electrical Vehicle, since electric motors are more efficient than ICE ones.
BEV = Battery Electrical Vehicles rather not, since charging times are too long (or lose too much as heat when doing high speed charging). People living in apartments don’t have the chance to charge their vehicle’s battery overnight at home.
I expect FCEVs to become prevalent.
FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle.
…in Europe. Europeans have a totally different outlook than Americans for better or worse. Europeans buy lots of cool, efficient hatchbacks like VW Ups and Alfa Mitos. Americans “need” a GMC Yukon to serve the exact same purpose.
The European government is backing fuel cell technology. The US government is not interested in fuel cells; they are strictly pimping BEVs. You are too logical. America isn’t in particular.
I see the European and US reality different from the “Idiot Boy”.
1st, USA has — in average — much less population density then Europe. Suburbia has a much larger part than in Europe, I believe. And thus they have the place to part the BEV to charge it from the home electrical outlet.
Nevertheless, you are right about the important part played by pickups (for private use) in the USA.
While European governments push a hydrogen economy, they push hard for BEVs instead of FCEVs, subsidising heavily new EVs. When they say “EV”, they always mean BEV. VW’s CEO declares that he sees not future for passenger cars as FCEV. Hydrogen only for heavy trucks, in the steel industry, and I don’t know which purposes.
Sure, one gets a subsidiy when buying an FCEV, but the push is for BEV and public subsidies also for a charging network.
The EY report focuses heavily on EV vehicle attributes in making their projections. While EVs certainly have some advantages over ICE on a vehicle level there are other non-vehicle factors that will have a much larger effect on EV adoption than just the vehicle characteristics. Examples:
Batteries – these now range from 1100 to 1800 lbs and require relatively large quantities of lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Even now they are costly with EVs at only 2% of the market. A 50% market share would be 7-8 M of these per year (US alone)! Even if we can acquire this much of these raw materials their prices will skyrocket raising the cost of the vehicles.
Grid capacity – States like California and Texas are already experiencing issues in meeting peak demand without EVs. Adding an EV to a household will significantly increase usage as single 8 hr charge of an EV (75 kw/hr) is equivalent to house usage of 2 – 3 days. Further, with the planned replacement of coal / nat gas power plants with renewable sources the base load capacity could actually decrease.
Grid distribution- residential distribution components (transformers, cables, substations) will have to be significantly upgraded to handle the increased load which will be costly and time consuming. Further, the increased load will decrease grid reliability in the meantime.
Grid reliability- as the issues experienced by California and Texas spread many vehicle owners will delay their EV purchase to avoid being stranded without the use of their vehicle during the “rolling brownouts”.
EVs are the future but we are going to have to actually solve these difficult and costly issues to make large scale use of EVs practical (which are more difficult issues to solve than the vehicles themselves). The EY study simply “assumes” that the issues above (and others) will be resolved in making their projections. Convenient but not realistic.
without making HUGE changes to the power grid this is a recipe for disaster. did anyone check out the actual charging requirements for these cars. Ever hear the term “Rolling Blackouts” I’m in the mist of a 2500 mile road trip. Try that with your EV. Not going to happen. They might be good for the commute in the city. Lots of luck anywhere else. I know many people with EV’s, they dread the day they purchased them.
As the world goes for more electric, where do they think the power is going to come from???????????? Gas engines are going to be here for a little longer than 2035……
“Electric Vehicles To Dominate Sales By 2033”. The way Cadillac is going now, total Cadillac unit sales in year 2033 will be 5,001 EV’s and 4,999 ICE’s.
BS
This is a bit of a convoluted subject, but even though I bought my 7th plug-in yesterday (a 2022 Bolt EUV (BEV) ), I highly doubt that ultimately there are going to be universal acceptance of them… It all boils down to cost of operation.
Right now, plug-in electrics in much of the USA cost about $1 a gallon equivalent to refuel, in 3 of 4 seasons at least…
But the Libtards in California and other West Coast locales are screwing things up so royally that this price advantage will largely disappear. EVs in the scheme of things do not use THAT much power, but much of California can’t keep their lights on even without them and EV charging loads at the wrong time won’t help.
Texas of All places was also affected by Libtard thinking. If they had left their existing perfectly fine ICE methane compressor stations AS-IS, they wouldn’t have had the slightest bit of trouble with their recent cold Snap. Instead due to Brain-Dead actions, they spent $Millions to make the system vulnerable. Before that, even with a total Solar And Wind power failure, the rest of the system whould have been fine.
But if the idiots legislate ICE vehicles out of existence – expect plenty of trouble in the more brain-dead parts of the US.
“Electric vehicles to dominate by 2033”?
Mary Barra and GM hopes!!!!