Sales of electric vehicles in the US, China and Europe will outpace internal combustion and hybrid vehicle sales by as early as 2033, according to a recent study conducted by Ernst & Young.
Ernst & Young used its so-called “EY Mobility Lens Forecaster,” to determine future EV demand, which is described as “an artificial intelligence (AI) powered forecast modeling tool that provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through 2050.”
The forecasting tool found that by 2033, combined EV sales will outpace that of all other powertrain types. Europe will lead this charge, with EY predicting European EV sales “will surpass those of other powertrains,” by as early as 2028. The same will happen in China by 2033, followed by the US in 2036. Europe will also lead EV sales volumes until 2031, at which point China will take the EV sales volume lead and maintain it through to at least 2050.
“A mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever,” concluded Ernst & Young’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, Randall Miller. “While the automotive industry has begun to more fully embrace the move toward electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected.”
New car buyers will help move this trend forward, Ernst & Young says. The business advisory firm says that nearly one-third of non-car owners planned to buy a car in the next six months (19 percent plan to buy new, while 12 percent will buy used), and about half of those are millennials. Among current car owners, as well as non-car owners, 30 percent said they’d prefer a non-ICE vehicle for their next purchase – which would include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or EVs.
This study will be good news for General Motors, which is investing heavily in both EV and hydrogen fuel cell technology. GM will introduce 30 new EVs globally by 2025, which will include cars, trucks and crossovers from its Chevy, Buick, Cadillac and GMC brands. The automaker believes it will have a competitive advantage with regard to electrification technology going forward, as well,l thanks to the introduction of proprietary technologies like its Ultium Drive family of electric motors and Ultium battery pack design.
“We are transitioning to an all-electric portfolio from a position of strength and we’re focused on growth,” GM CEO Mary Barra said of the company’s EV transition last year. “We can accelerate our EV plans because we are rapidly building a competitive advantage in batteries, software, vehicle integration, manufacturing and customer experience.”