During Tesla’s recent Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said he expects the upcoming new Tesla Model Y compact crossover to outsell the Tesla Model 3, Model S and Model X combined. While a lofty claim, it’s easy to see why Musk’s expectations for the crossover are high. Crossovers are the most popular vehicle type right now and the Model X, which starts at a pricey $75,000, isn’t well-positioned to capitalize on that demand. The Model Y will be much more attainable for your average person, with an expected starting price of around $40,000.
Former General Motors executive Bob Lutz isn’t convinced the Model Y will be very popular, though. Speaking to Autoline After Hours, Lutz expressed his disdain for the vehicle’s styling and said that like the Model X, it wasn’t a true crossover, but rather a “humpback thing.”
“The Model 3 continues to sell well. But the Model Y, I think it’s terminally ugly. I don’t know who’s gonna buy that. It’s another one of these humpback things like the Model X. It’s neither a sport utility nor a sedan, and to the extent it sells, I don’t think it’s going to break into a new segment. I think the sales will be largely substitutional to the Model 3,” Lutz said.
The Model Y Long Range is expected to launch in 2020, while production of the Standard Range version will begin in 2021. The Long Range version has an EPA estimated range of 300 miles in rear-wheel-drive trim, while all-wheel-drive models should be able to travel around 280 miles on a single charge. Tesla is also launching a Model Y Performance variant, which will accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in roughly 3.5 seconds and top out at 150 mph.
The Model Y may take a bite out of Hyundai Kona EV and Chevrolet Bolt EV sales, which are currently the only two electric crossovers in the $30,000 range. The Bolt EV isn’t a true crossover, either, for what it’s worth—though the upcoming Chevrolet Bolt EUV, expected to launch sometime in 2020 as a 2021 model-year vehicle, will take on a more traditional crossover shape. GM will certainly be looking over at the Model Y’s stats when developing the Bolt EUV and also its popularity relative to Model 3 sedan.
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Comments
If you are Tesla you must be smiling right now. Every single time Lutz has been on record about anything Tesla, he has had egg on his face shortly right after. So If Bob Lutz thinks the Y is ugly, Tesla won’t be able to keep up with the Demand.
One has to wonder if Lutz is simply upset that Musk clearly won the Future of cars over his vision and he still holds a grudge about it. He was on TV many years ago saying the Future is the Volt and not Pure EV’s and Musk told him he respectfully was wrong. Or is he just heavily invested in Big Oil and is doing Fud work?
Either way I still very much respect Bob Lutz in the Automotive Industry but man has he been on the wrong side of History regarding Tesla.
I do however wish GM had a Lutz guy still around. He knew just how important interiors are. If you watch that whole show, he basically avoids the Land Mine about current GM interiors.
by the time the y comes out, federal tax credits will be 0.
let’s see what the sale numbers are w/o the training wheels when other manufacturers still have them.
@Steve
The Federal Tax Incentive on Tesla cars is like $1800. You think that is the reason why Tesla is selling every vehicle they can produce? Are you saying that once that $1800 is no longer available to the Buying Public that Tesla will no longer be able to sell 50-100 Thousand Dollar vehicles anymore because the Customer will no longer get their $1800?
i’m saying that lower credit is the reason why there was a 40% drop in north american sales in the third quarter. everyone was buying the second quarter to take advantage of the higher credit. tesla will still sell vehicles in north america, but it will be a tougher sell. model s and x vehicles sales are declining as it is already.
the ev market is distorted by the tax credit. there will be a period where some manufacturers will have the full credit while others like tesla/gm will not. so during this time, those with the credit will be at an advantage.
after all the credits have been used up, then we’ll have a better picture. unless prices come down, i think the ev pie shrinks or stagnates in north america. i don’t think most buyers can afford the considerable price premium of an ev vs ice/hybrid.
The point you are missing is not who will or will not have the Credits going forward, it is the price of the vehicle. Tesla every six months or so drops prices on their vehicles. They do this because they get cheaper pricing for their Battery Tech. They also make much better EV vehicles than any other Company right now. Audi gets the Tax Credit but why isn’t anyone getting EV Audis?
Two reasons…Reason One is that Dealerships DO NOT want to sell EV’s. Trust me, I am speaking from experience. Reason Two is that they are just not on Par with Tesla yet.
Eventually Tesla cars will be cheaper to purchase than the Eco-Boxes other manufacturers are working on now. And the crazy part will be that Tesla will still be making a profit. They are years ahead of the Competition.
Hopefully GM isn’t too far behind but it seems like they are not only behind Tesla as of right now, they are falling behind the VW Group as well.
Momolos
GM & Bob Lutz have always said the Volt was a step towards full electric.
@Peter G
If you are a Tesla worker, shareholder, or simply just a Tesla fan, you are extremely excited every time Bob Lutz chimes in about Tesla as he has been completely wrong in each and every turn.
The next time Bob Lutz predicts something correctly about Tesla, will be his first. I honestly have no clue why Americans are bashing an American Company that will keep us in the lead going into the Future instead of say The VW Group. Tesla employees a lot of Americans and I will pull for them always as I do our other Big Three. I am a GM fan first but GM is waaaaaaaay behind Tesla right now and probably The VW Group.
I wish GM still had a Bob Lutz in their leadership. He is truly missed at GM in my opinion. With the Great Bob Lutz I do not think we would have gotten these Subpar Cadillacs, 1500’s, and all the Subpar interiors the last say 5-10 years. He would not have allowed it.
As far as the why Bob Lutz keeps bashing Tesla is unknown to me. All I can think of is jealousy that his vision on his way out (The Volt) wasn’t a huge success as he thought it would have been and is bitter that Tesla blew up World Wide. I sure hope it is not due to him getting money from Big Oil to spread lies and make FUD Tesla Predictions all over TV. I have too much respect for Mr. Lutz to think that. I just Pray it is as simple as he is Clueless about what makes Tesla great and is being ignorant every time he goes on Television to make these Grand Predictions that Tesla is a Sham and will not last too much longer.
As we all see they keep breaking their Quarterly Deliveries the last Three out of Four Quarters. Now they are weeks away from the Shanghai Factory that will basically become a Money Printing endeavor for the Company. The China Built Model 3’s will only be 3% cheaper in Price so they do not upset the early adopters. That means that all the Logistical money spent on shipping Model 3’s to China are completely saved and also the Labor Workforce will be making much less per Hour than the American Labor Workers make in California. So yeah I think Tesla will be around for a little longer Mr. Lutz.
Hopefully Bob Lutz realizes Tesla as another great American Company and stops Bashing them every chance he gets on TV as he is starting to look like he has no clue what he is talking about. And we as GM fans know that Bob Lutz forgot more about the Auto Industry as a whole than all of us here combined know about it.
I would hate for the Great mans ending Legacy to be known as a Tesla Basher and basically been wrong about everything Tesla all these years. He is much better than that and should be recognized as the Auto Giant that he is. Someone should tell him to stop appearing on TV as it is becoming a very bad look to his Legacy. It is ok to be wrong on things. I have corrected my stance here many, many times. It is Human to be wrong. But man he needs to Stop Beating a Dead Horse.
Only the S is very good looking and then they changed the nose and made it worse. Now it is looking old.
But to be fair most EV models are not stylish to begin with.
The new Taycan looks to change that but I need to see it in person.
C8.R
The federal tax credit was meant to kick start the electric car industry in the U.S. If GM and Tesla no longer qualify, I don’t think it’s going to survive the next round of budget cuts.
Never said anything on tax cuts.
C8.R
Sorry, meant as a response to Steve.
Cool!
Auto Makers design these EV’s to stand out from normal looking ICE vehicles. I agree that it is a mistake to do so. Tesla cars look pretty normal. The Model 3 has no need for a Grill so they designed a front scoop instead. Some like it and some do not.
I think once the majority of vehicles go the full EV route, they will look more normalized in my opinion.
The three looks like an incomplete design.
I agree the nose of the EV has no need for a grill but just leaving it blank is not really going to work as the grill has played a major part of a cars Identity over the last 125 years,
Part of the problem is Aero has become so dominate in styling it has killed many styling features people like or things that make it interesting. EV even more so.
The EV models are designing around batteries and keep size smaller to increase range.
It would be best if they could keep the cars from looking like science experiments and just make them look good.
Out side the older S model Tesla looks like a soulless refrigerator.
Think not look at the latest Ferrari 488 PIsta. It has a design that you not only see but feel it in side. even if you are not driving it you would enjoy just washing it.
I see the blank grill is your chance to write new history and not follow what people follow as car identity for 125 years, Its not just vestigial now , its decreasing the efficiency also.
New designs will evolve ….. I love of old pontiac sunfire coupe/ 2003-2005 Chevrolet Cavalier kind of designs too.
Not necessarily better looking designs.
Better looking is more subjective rather than objective. I do love grill based designs also but for sure that is not the identity of a car ( some made it identity of brand but that is just branding )
This looks like all Tesla vehicles…….ugly. In a attempt to make their vehicles look futuristic.
Well evidently Tesla has figured out how to sell ugly to the Masses around the World then.
True.
When you are really the only choice one there is little to no competition.
That will change soon as other enter the market.
The only thing Tesla proved was you can sell high priced EV models while everyone else was trying to figure out how to sell them cheap. Even now the 3 is not cheap and makes much less per unit than the S.
They really need to redo the S to make it the it car again as the other models come to market. It was as much or more an image car than even an EV. People used it for status.
The S funded the new products and the rest failed to do so. That is why they had to pre sell the 3 as the X failed to fund it.
While the 3 and Y are not offensive in the look they are far from boy I just have to get one of those kind of styling.
The real question is if it had Nissan on the tail and a gas engine under the hood would anyone even notice it?
You could crap a turd and pitch it as a new design and the sheep will buy it. Oh wait!
@ Cadillac Matt Hey Ik this is off topic but as a Matt I have to say I love your name lol. And I love Cadillacs.
The truth is people like Bob lutz live in past. Tesla is the iphone of cars now. If i want to have a car with prestige and pride , no other brands offer it ( probably the next in line would be Lexus – wait for Lexus EV also to hit market – they also have loyal buyers and those buyers are hard earned buyers by Toyota on its green image (hybrid, remember the Toyota batteries lasted very good ) and reliability offerings ) . Both of these brands , the buyers are fine with the looks, they expect way more than just exterior looks of a car.
@unni Yah but I think Gm will beat Toyota, you just wait.
did iphone sales ever drop 40% in one quarter? that is what happened to tesla north american sales in the 3rd quarter.
i think this was due to the expiring tax credits and sales were artificially boosted in the 2nd quarter.
i don’t think telsa has enough cachet to demand a $7500 premium over ev competitors. the days of high growth in north america are probably over.
@Steve
This was due to the fact that Tesla cannot keep up with Demand around the World. They cannot produce Model 3’s fast enough. Once the Gigafactory in China is up and running Tesla will be able to Produce more vehicles for the NA Market. A lot still will be shipped to Europe. Model 3’s are getting Gobbled up in droves in Europe. Tesla will in two years have a Gigafactory in Europe as well. They will need it. I hate to keep beating a Dead Horse here on the site but we in this country are totally behind in the EV revolution that is taking hold around the World. Once Europe and China specifically go Full EV’s, where will that leave our Big Three?
They need Europe (not so much GM) but especially China. I really do not understand why some still think EV’s are a Pipe-dream. There is Regulation basically signed World Wide except here. It is the inevitable that cars will be EV’s not too distant in the Future.
I for one am glad that an American Company is in the lead. Haven’t been able to say that about an American Car Company in forever. Hopefully GM gets cracking here.
X and Y are seriously ugly. And definitely not cross-overs. Ugly hatch-wagon in my eyes.
They are nothing more than a “minivan coupe”.
Ugly as sin!
GM should just quit complaining, hire some of those laid off Tesla Exec’s, and start building real EV’s, not fake ones like the Bolt which fail to make road trips with reasonable speed. Talk is cheap. Make real EV’s I want to buy else my money is going to Germany or California, not Michigan.
For the money, the Model Y Performance will be quite a value. Its competitors (AMG GLC63, BMW X4 M, Alfa Stelvio Quadriflogio) are pushing close to $100K. None of them really look much better either.
2 thoughts:
1) If Tesla could just produce the thing already
2) If GM could even care about this segment
This coming from the once leader of a company that brought us the Pontiac Aztek…lol
…and the CTS-V Wagon.
The Aztek was at GM before Lutz arrived. He even asked his staff when he saw a restyled one why they could not have done that?
Might note it died not long after Lutz arrived.
Talking about the design team not Lutz……GM like many others have built some really poor designs…but the bright side is they are getting better….
Lutz,
Brain dead, inbred. It’s Silicon Valley vs Detroit. What’s a house in Detroit worth?