Last year, General Motors divulged plans to help lead a charge toward a zero emission future and introduce 20 new pure-electric models to market by 2023. The automaker said it was “optimistic about EVs because (in 2017), automakers sold 1.2 million plug-in electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles,” and it has “seen a dramatic increase in customer miles,” travelled in the Volt plug-in hybrid and Bolt EV in recent years.
Even though almost every major automaker in the world has made similar statements to GM, or at least announced plans to develop more electrified vehicles going forward, it’s still not entirely clear what the true demand for EVs is. Former Ford CEO Mark Fields believes there is strong demand for EVs, but that anyone who believes they will rapidly replace internal combustion engine vehicles is in for a wake up call.
Fields also believes that the added development costs of EVs will put automakers at risk if the economy were to crash, and says that EV sales will likely have to be incentivized due to the low natural demand for them.
“They are going to have to first restructure the margins of the business and on top of it you’re going to have to incentivize demand,” the ex Ford CEO said. “If you throw in, during that time period, a recession that’s going to happen at some point, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the OEMs.”
As for the autonomous vehicle industry, another emerging area GM is betting big on, Fields also says some are in for a wake-up call. He thinks autonomous vehicles will probably only be used in city centers and solely for commercial purposes. Additionally, he said they won’t arrive this year or next year as many believe, with the “back end of next decade,” being much more plausible, he said.
Source: Automotive News Europe
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Comments
Regardless of market trends, I think a major component to why the automakers are switching is because the oil industry has proven to be too volatile to rely on. A lot of people have forgotten how the mid-2000s surge in gas prices sped up the domestic industry’s near-collapse and certainly didn’t help when the economy cratered out only a few years later. Ford, Chrysler, and GM were woefully unprepared to shift to higher efficient sedans and SUVs.
we are energy independent thanks to trump and fracking. the arabs are blowing up oil tankers and the price of gasoline keeps going down not up. if this would have happened under a lib administration gas would be $4+ a gallon because we depended on middle east oil.
Actually 5he EV segment wil, continue to grow but it is a slow growth segment till more charging, faster chargers and cheaper prices are reached.
EV models are more expensive, and can force many to change their life style. It makes it where many have to sacrifice more money and time to adopt. Or so as many average see it.
The real reason automakers want the EV segment to take off is simple. Once established it will be cheaper to bring them to market once the batteries become cheaper.
The EV driveline is not the big cost problem it is the battery.
The MFGs also would not have to pass emissions testing that is so expensive. The also one motor could be used in most applications and tuned to the needed performance or range. No fuel tank testing etc.
In fact the skateboard system similar system could be used and the battery and drivelines would all be similar but different bodies would be put on them set at different wheel bases.
As for oil prices much of that is up to our government. If they want to regulate it to were it drives prices up it will go up. If we keep regulations low and keep pumping our own oil prices will remain down. We right now control our own fate.
But most CUV models get excellent mpg so the impact will not be as great if they do go up.
The movement to EVs will drive the cost of ICE cars way down. Who will buy an ICE car when resale value goes to near 0?
The price of solar panels and batteries are dropping at 20% per year. They can not compete. ICE cars have 2,000Â moving parts. EVs less than 30.
Not so fast cowboy.
It is in the right direction but it still will take time.
The real issue will be with advancements of EV models going forward most people will want an old EV about as much as they want a 5 year old cellphone.
That is NOT the way that markets work. Anybody taking their time will be dead. They will become a Kodak. Kodak 2000 record sales, Kodak 2012 bankrupt. The market will not wait for Ford or GM or the US. It WILL be that fast. They better crank up EV support NOW. They need a million chargers SOON.
You didn’t study the information I mentioned.
Tony Seba: Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation
He makes extreme predictions. BUT doesn’t mean that he is wrong.
EV sales ate going up ICE sales are going down.
This is not the camera market.
This is the deal. The systems are being developed but they are still not ready for all types of consumers in the market place yet. More work needs to be done.
Here is the catch. Automakers like VW and GM can afford to do development on their own programs. They are doing well enough right now to take a proactive approach.
Automakers like Ford and FCA are hurting enough that they can not go as all in as they would like as they need a return on product sooner than later to deal with stock prices hovering around $10 and $16 per share.
The market is going to split up into some mergers for some makers like FCA and Partnerships like we see with Honda and GM. Everyone is going to want or in many cases need a dance partner to cover the development cost as the market grows slowly.
GM started this off with the Impact. They did not sell the car because one it was still not really production ready for the average customer and two it would have cost more than anyone would pay. The Volt took it to the next level trying to appeal to a wider audience and try to keep cost down and not lose money. The Bolt is the latest step.
The bottom line is the progress to the EV segment is going to be in more steps as they work to lower cost and raise comparability to where nearly anyone would consider one and make money doing it.
I foresee GM and VW selling power systems to other companies to use in the future and companies like Ford would be the customer. Hence them not investing as much now.
It is like TV’s while there are many brands most are made of the same parts in a different housing. They are often assembled in the same plants with the same Samsung screens. The same will happen here.
This is where Tesla is really missing the boat. They would be so much better off designing these systems and then licensing them to the other MFGS to use. Let them be the MFG and Tesla remains the tech company it really is. Their major failure is MFG.
Like Intel they don’t build the computers but they make parts for them and are making more money doing so.
The way this is done in the auto industry will change in the future. What we have now is not going to be sustainable for ever.
Tesla missing the boat? They are at least 5 years ahead of everybody. There would would have had an EV industry without Tesla. They know more about EV batteries than anybody. They already own more than 1/2 of the lithium ion market. Everybody is chasing Tesla.
They are not making money and they are having major issues getting product in production and they are struggling to get the money from production to add more models.
You just made my point. They know more and design great systems. But they are horrible about getting product built, to market and now quality is slipping more.
License the technology to other makers and just sit back and collect the money.
Even Apple knows better than to be a MFG. They develop and design but they leave MFG to others. Note they make a profit and pay dividends unlike Tesla.
Is that why Panasonic makes batteries for Tesla?
Markp1950: While I think you are a bit optimistic, the example of Kodak you state is right on. Most people probably don’t know that engineers at Kodak invented the digital camera, but Kodak management decided to not market it (probably because it might hurt the film business?). They even went so far as to order engineering to destroy the prototype! The rest is digital photo history.
Kind of reminds me of the Volt story at GM. GM also decided to kill an innovative, market leading product.
It was the killing of the EV-1 that drove Elon to start Tesla. Seeing how they had to pry the EV-1 out of their hands to get it back. Once you go EV you don’t want to go back. (for most)
ATT hired experts in 1985, They were looking for how many cellphones would be in use in 2000. The “experts” predicted 900,000 actual number 120,000,000….
Just enjoying watching the change.
The ONLY ones that will be surprised will be the ones not converting to EVs. The convergence of improved/lower cost batteries, falling/lower cost solar, improved/lower cost autonomy(computer and software) and better EVs will drive the movements to EVs at exponential rates. They will never match the performance and the fun of EVs. Transportation As A Service will kill the sales of non EV cars. EVs will be Million Mile vehicles able to run 10,000 miles a month. It is over. Car sales are already falling. Those closest to the industry are the ones most often wrong.
Study: Tony Seba: Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation
Also rethinkx.com
Tony Seba is a self-serving ignoramus. Wasn’t this the clown that said all privately owned cars will be replaced by avs in the next decade?
Tony has been making predictions FOR YEARS, and although timing may be perfect he is as close to 100% as you can get.
Close. 2025 every car sold will be electric. 2028 80% of the cars will be off of the road. If the predictions are a few years off, so what.
Exactly what he says. Critics will say “what are you smoking?” Then reality will hit!
This week in an Australian newspaper.
During the 2020s, city travel will be transformed by automation, electrification, artificial intelligence and ride-sharing.
Ride-sharing will have the biggest impact. In combination with the other three advances, it should end most traffic congestion, end most car CO2/NOx emissions and reduce travel costs for many down to 10¢/km.
For cars, buses and trains, the present all-up cost for travel to and from work is roughly $1/km a person. For taxis with one passenger, it is roughly $2/km.
Before long, all taxis should be both autonomous and battery-powered. Later, taxi costs should be down to a vehicle cost of 20¢/km and this should make most taxi ride-sharing fares cost about 10¢/km.
Little of this and its implications are well understood by our governments. This should be urgently rectified.
Because the Tesla RoboTaxi will be driverless the cost will be much lower. $1/KM is WAY to high for me. We are talking 1/5th of that. I would use that sparingly. I use the city bus. It costs me $32 per month. For the 3 in my family it costs $136 per month. Probably, just insurance would cost more than that.
You just have to believe, then it will happen… I guess the rest of us will have to wait and see.
I know, I know. Future dreadnaught factories working in the dark. Yawn, put down the koolaide
Volkswagen group plans to spend $30-$50 billion to come up with a broad mix of all electric vehicles, within the next five years.
The reason must be the progression of stricter regulations on diesel/gas vehicles sold in Europe.
Where’s all the electricity going to come from as more EVs are on the road?
Home solar can provide enough power to power your EV.
In 1900. Why put gas in your horseless carriage when your horse can eat at the side of the road? Are they really going to have gasoline everywhere.
Welllll they got the infrastructure built. Now it going to electric.
Home solar cannot provide enough charging for an EV for most people. Do you live in California, or another state like me that has clouds and rain regularly, or maybe trees that are over my house? Do you have just one car, or 3? People switched quickly from horses to cars because horses were awful! Modern ICE cars are so easy, smooth and clean, the switch to electric is NOT the same kind of benefit. I don’t see modern ICE cars dropping turds on the road, needing water every 5 miles, and sometimes refusing to move because they get scared.
EV owners have a full tank the beginning of every day. Never see a gas station.
I’ve already moved to ride sharing. I own 0 cars. I don’t need a car.
So will others.
I like driving, and will never NOT own a car.
Same with others.
It’s obvious that Former Ford CEO Mark Fields didn’t get the memo from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; the world will end in 12 years unless the world moves to ZEV which means consumers won’t have a say whether they want or don’t want an electric vehicle because the transition will start in 2025 with the entire fleet moving to ZEV by 2035 which also means Middle Eastern countries like Iran will be selling oil for $20-25 a barrel.
The world it’s self will not end weather wise but regulation wise the day is coming. Pandora’s box was opened and there is no stopping it globally on auto regulations. Just try to change your Oil in Germany and get caught spilling any of it.
Iran is only selling oil cheap because we are pumping more oil here to drive the price down to hurt Iran and Russia.
As long as who ever is heading our country allows pipe lines and less restricted drilling oil will remain down. If someone gets in to cut this off then the price will go up.
They can’t sell below cost. Solar can just keep on dropping.
On the highway Wednesday, farmer fields are bare. They better pray. Record floods. Record heat. And it only has begun. So laugh at AOC. You will stop laughing!
Well first off weather varies. I grew up on farms and the weather is ever changing. Is this the first time for lots of rain and colder temps. No. Next year can be dry and hot.
The crops are getting planted.
I love these global warming flakes. If it is really hot it is global warming. If it is cold It is global warming. It it is dry it is global warming if it is wet it is global warming?
I challenge you to go back to most areas outside of San Diego and see how the weather is in constant change and flux. The earth is a large ever changing self regulating living planet. It adapts and changes constantly and if not life would have faded years ago.
The earth will wobble but it will always come back to where it started.
Things air wise were much worse 100 years ago. we had less trees and much more soot and ash in the air globally.
EV transition will be slow. FCA, a big brand with limited capital, has been smart to focus on TODAY while sourcing EV technology when needed. Companies like Waymo, Seimans, Boshe will be making massive INVESTMENTS, and it may be wise to purchase new technology instead of developing in house.
An automaker may we wise to save money on failures now like Bolt and Volt. A lot of future EV technology will be open source anyway. So much technology can be gained via partnership, too. Meanwhile this allows an automaker to focus on design and marketing which are, aside from quality, key.
FCA has focused nothing on the future and only Jeep and Ram for today outside the Italian money pits they have.
They at some point will have to merge with someone and hope the trucks and Jeeps are enough to overlook the rest of the steaming heap.
I’d take an Alfa over any GM product any day because I’m a DRIVER and not a point-A-to-B commuter.
The comments on this website beg GM to make a compelling car that actually drives well, yet when faced with an actual driver’s brand, they talk negatively of it. I’m not sure what the actual GM Authority really wants as a consumer and I’m happy it’s not my job to find out.
Steve: Exactly how is the Volt a failure? A truly innovative EV (EREV) product that perfectly met the needs of the American road TODAY, not in some dystopian future where there might be Super Charger stations on every corner. I believe the Volt was second only to the Tesla in EV sales to date, in spite of the fact that GM did little to market it. It surely was a technological success, even if GM management did look a gift horse in the mouth.
You can build EV cars and trucks. No problem. Batteries not included. GM has to invest in chargers and batteries.
They have to build a compelling EV truck. Tesla will bow them out of the water. Why buy a “performance” Corvette when a Tesla Family SUV will beat it?
How about if GM tries to build a compelling car? They had the lead with the Volt and totally squandered it. Right now, the closest thing to a “no compromise” electric vehicle is Tesla. As much as I want to get an EV, I don’t see why I should go from my 325HP AWD ATS to a freaking Bolt AND pick up range anxiety.
If Mary and GM really believe in EVs, they need to announce a CT4-E with at least 250HP, greater than 200mi range, AND at least 75kW charging. Option 2 is to follow Lincoln with a PHEV version with a combined 350HP.
I’ve said it a million times and I’ll say it again, no electric for me, ever. I drive a diesel Colorado. It’s a truck that gets 30MPG on the freeway. I can get 600 +miles of range in 2 minutes at the pump. I can tow a huge trailer to the middle of the Michigan U.P. (where is a charger up there) and never have to worry about how I’ll get back, and get 18 MPG towing that trailer (what kind of range will the electric truck get towing 7,000 lbs?) I can go visit family in Florida Pre-Hurricane and if SHTF, I have 20 Gallons of extra diesel in my truck bed, which I can refill the truck tank in 5 minutes and drive back to Michigan. I don’t hate electric, and would even buy one for a family run-about, but for my long haul, daily driver and work truck, no way.
Really? You drive 600 miles. Fill up and drive another 600miles. Nice punishment. I would explode. I once tried to drive 400 miles. I had to stop before gas…. Drive for 300-400 miles and break for 40 minutes while charging. Don’t have to wait by the charger.
7,000 pounds? You have a toy. 20 gallons in the truck bed? Sounds like a nice fire waiting to happen. Tesla semi will tow 80,000 pounds for 600 miles.
People spreading lies like that should be forced to sin a truck for 24 hours.
You sound like a danger on the road.
Opinions are fine but let’s stick with the facts.
Yes, EVs are coming, this article just questions the timing. Until there is more charging infrastructure they will not appeal to everyone; urban areas will see the initial growth for that reason. Emission regulation will be another significant factor, especially in the EU, that will force more EV production in the near future.
I drive my vehicles into the ground. I traded my silverado in with 280,000 miles. Will I have to replace the batteries 2 to 3 times to get this kind of mileage? When I was looking for a car for my 16 old son, I came across what a camry hybrid that seemed to be a decent price, 120,000 miles. The battery replacement on that unit was $5000 so I passed. Will someone have to fork out $5000 for every 100,000 miles (supposedly 30% battery lose at that mileage)? I had to replace my transmission in the silverado twice but that was still cheaper than 2 battery swaps.
“I drive my vehicles into the ground. I traded my silverado in with 280,000 miles.”
The new drive train in the Model 3 is tested to a million miles. Same motor that is going into the semi truck. As a robotaxi it will be driving 10,000 miles per month or more. Paying for itself. The Camry hybrid does not have the controls to protect the battery. New chemistries are letting it go way over 200,000 miles. And a degraded battery is usable as a home backup. Enough to power the home for days.
if the libs were not trolling for the enviro votes there would be no EVs being planned. there is enought oil in the ground to last 100 years and we are finding more everyday. battery powered cars were replaced by gasoline powered cars 100 years ago and some people want to go back.