Although it seems as if the automotive industry is preparing for a seismic shift, a new study from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) predicts it will be decades before electrification and self-driving cars become widespread.
The raw numbers speak for themselves. The study predicts Level 4 and Level 5 self-driving cars will only make up 4 percent of new vehicles by 2030, though its prediction rises to 55 percent of new-vehicle sales by 2040. Still, almost half of new cars will not drive themselves, per the research.
And on the electrification front, only 8 percent of new-car sales will feature battery-electric and alternative propulsion systems by 2030.
The study also looked to explain the mass investments in mobility, electrification and self-driving technology. In order for automakers to carve out a stake for the future, they must invest now. It’s precisely what we’re seeing from nearly every automaker, including General Motors.
Even if the effects aren’t widespread for three decades, automakers must lay the foundation for changing times today.
“While the technology to electrify and automate vehicles will take decades to proliferate, automakers and suppliers must invest now to have a stake in the future of the transformed automotive industry,” Carla Bailo, CEO of CAR, said.
Additionally, the study also predicted that automakers will begin to slow investments in alternative propulsion and autonomy, especially if the new-car market begins to slow and sales continue to plateau or even drop.
“Will the auto industry continue to spend at the current pace through a downturn in the business cycle? If recent history is any guide, they will not — at least not at the current speed and scale of investment,” Bailo added.
As for the staple internal-combustion engine, it’s not going away anytime soon. At least not in the U.S.
The study’s survey results show 18 percent of Americans prefer electrified powertrains over gasoline engines. It’s a stark contrast to Chinese respondents, in which 56 percent preferred electrified powertrains to gasoline engines.
And on the ride-sharing front, many Americans don’t consider it a viable alternative to personal vehicle ownership, or even an alternative to public transportation such as buses or subways.
The future may seem more distant than we once thought, and even then, emerging technologies still need to find acceptance. Granted, these are predictions and don’t account for all unforeseen happenings.
Comments
CAR is wrong about vehicle electrification. That began with the Kettering electric starter and electric headlights, as the battery became an important part of the automobile. Now every single auto sold has some “electrification” such as ECM, BCM, electric injectors, electric fuel pumps, electric power steering, electric water pumps, electric blowers, and electric A/C compressors.
There is no vehicle in the world without an electric device. All the car manufacturers are adding electric motors to the power trains, producing hybrids now, and pure electrics sooner than 2030.
I think you’re a little broad with your generalization. I think the report was referring to electrification as a primary mean for drivetrains, and not as electrification of features and accessories within a car.
Power windows were once hydraulically operated (you can imagine the mess of plumbing), and now I can safely say I’m glad all power windows today are electric. As a primary means of moving a whole car, we are there today but a lot of work needs to be done. I saw my first Bolt last week, and while I don’t like the rear turn signals down that low on a car, I do think there will be a second gen Bolt that will make it’s way into my driveway.
It’s simple, if you believe CAR, a Ann Arbor based non-profit who’s well connected to the big three and has made anti-Tesla remarks, short Tesla and empty your bank account to buy GM stock…You’ll get fifthly rich, right?
Well it is a little premature to make a prediction like this and put percentages.
While the ICE is not going to be totally gone I still expect the EV to grow in numbers over time. Now how fast it grows will come down to technology and improvement in batteries. We may find the ultimate battery in 4 years and it could change the face of the entire market. Or we could struggle on with what we have for 15 more years and growth will be moderate.
I really expect a mix of different ways of travel and I expect more specialization of some of these products. Vehicles in fleets and set routes will see the fastest growth as they are predictable in how and where they go.
The private cars will be tempered with price, ability to charge or refuel and range yet. As these issues are solved it will increase.
I do expect to see more commuter like EV cars and I expect to see some limited performance applications.
Liker the Smart Phone. Now that we have investment things will improve at a faster rate but the discovery rate of things we can not predict.
I think it’s great that more electric vehicles are coming! But I think there will always be a mix of electric and gas vehicles in the future!
This is a study with Americans and isn’t representative of the rest of the world. China; the largest auto market in the world, will be driving the change. They have mandated that they will be the world leader in electrification. If others still want to make horseshoes, they are free to do so.
I think the article is probably correct. Unfortunately, America is a fracking giant with gas prices too cheap to facilitate a jump to EVs. In addition, new transmissions, weight reduction, and the work Mazda has done on the ICE increased efficiency by 30 percent will be copied or licensed by other automakers.
I certainly hope Barra hasn’t bet The General’s farm on EV technology. Especially because the key market for electric is Europe where GM is just a memory and rebuilding will be difficult. China will thrive but JVs mean profit shares.
In 1985 ATT paid for a prediction. What will the cellphone market be in 2000.
The prediction… 900,000
The actual results. 109,000,000.. ATT missed big on that.
The industry experts are often WAY OFF….
There is a convergence in technologies….
Falling solar costs. The fuel for EVs.
Electrical Storage costs are falling…. The gas tank for EVs….
Computers are getting cheaper and smarter every day. The brains for autonomous driving.
The parts to have the car “see” are getting much cheaper….
ICE cars have over 2000 moving parts. EVs maybe 30. Less to break.
EVs will last 1,000,000 miles
Cars are only used 5% of the time. They will be shared the other part of the time lowering costs.
EVERY TIME costs lower like that, when the tipping point hits, the markets get disrupted.
Disruption hits on a S curve EVERY TIME.
NY Easter parade 1900. 1 car all horses… Easter parade 1913 All cars 1 horse.
2000 Kodak has a record year. 2012 Kodak files for bankruptcy.
When the EVs start taking over like that what will the market be for used ICE cars? No trade in value.
That is disruption….. If you need a car now, I would consider leasing it. They them take the loss…
… fake news…
Says the guy with a grade school education…(barely) Lol