There are many reasons the collector car market may be on a downward trend after a peak year in 2015. But, it starts with who is buying and selling the cars, and that would be the baby boomer generation. Automotive News reported last Friday that the vast majority of individuals with garages full of collectible cars fall square in the baby boomer bracket—those born between 1946 and 1964.
And millennials, born between the 1980s and 1999, aren’t nearly as interested in them as previous generations. Transaction prices at auctions reflect this, and the number of cars up for auction continues to grow with fewer buyers interested.
However, this could change. Millennials are still relatively young and remained shackled by debt in many forms as they purchase homes, complete higher education and begin to raise families. In the future, millennials could reinvest in collector cars, but for now, it’s not a trend. Those youngsters that are into collector cars also deviate from previous generations in the kinds of cars they like, too; vintage cars remain steady, but SUVs, trucks, and older imports continue to rise in value.
Future technology also paints an uncertain picture for the collectible car market as self-driving cars could change the way vehicles operate on the road. We still firmly believe widespread automation is decades away, but it will certainly play a factor in the collector car market.
Comments
We just were discussing this at work the other day.
We expect many cars to fall in value as time goes on.
Only the most rare, historic and low volume high demand vehicles will remain of great value.
The whole performance industry is feeling the effects and has been changing how the do business anymore. It appears healthy but it is a much different market today and even some of the biggest performance name have sold and closed. Centerline wheel just closed recently.
There will always be gear heads but there will many less of us than in the past.
Spend a while a with “Car Enthusiasts” here on GMA and soon a newbie can see they’re unwelcome…
– “Electric cars are for poofters”
– “Women drivers blah blah blah”
– “Mary Barra blah blah blah”
– “Bicycle riders (the very kids who enjoy moving machines and are most likely to want cars) are evil aholes, let’s drive as close as possible to threaten them and make them feel scared and then yell at them that everything is their own fault”
– “Kids are Stoopid anyway”
– Parents track their phone, and now the insurance company wants to track their car, no thanks!
– “If you drive, you’re not allowed to have your friends in the car until you’re 25” (actually Law in Australia and NZ)
– ”I’ll let you have the car, but only in Valet mode”
– “Because this is your 1st car, you have to have a Prius C”
– “You need a car because you’re over-scheduled and you literally can’t get from after-school advanced classes to football and then to theatre practice and then study group? Well, after you have proven yourself by getting into Harvard, on a football scholarship, while winning America’s Got Talent, THEN I’ll buy you a car…”
– How many kids, especially non-white kids, want to be pulled over by police? I’ve seen YT clips of Bar-passed lawyers needing more than an hour to explain the law to a police officer, and even then the officer releases them with maximum disrespect and threats.
– so after all that, after the kid has worked a job for years, got good grades, hasn’t been bad and smoked or drank, finally they buy that car. What’s the first words out of Mom&Dad’s mouth? “You better be good or I’ll take that car away immediately”
I forgot, Kids also don’t want to finance their local municipal council through Police ticket-traps
For decades, every part of our society has seen cars as cash-cows. Dealers, insurers, municipal councils and their cops, gas stations in cities, parking space owners, registerers, parts suppliers, so many rip-offs in every aspect of owning a car.
Before the internet, kids were never told. Now, they can find out for themselves.
Just like taxi’s (Uber), motels (Airbnb), Education (online universities) and cable TV (streaming), new kids are learning where the old rip-offs are BEFORE they open their wallets. Sure, the new businesses aren’t “better”, but they are only temporary until the kids see an even better service. If you’ve been watching Uber/Airbnb etc, you will see they are being scrutinized in every detail every day. Kalanik lasted for only a couple of years, not decades like Rick Wagoner or Roger Smith
Service – Kids know it’s good, unlike their parents who only ever wanted their kids to service THEM with housework and good grades to brag to their neighbors about. I can tell you as a teacher of 30 years that the kids in the last 10 years have been smarter than any previous generation and they simply won’t pay money they don’t have to, and when they do pay the service better be good or they will yelp it.
On the other end of the spectrum, many opinion piece articles has stated over the couple of decades, “Oil Tycoons” overpay for collector cars which creates a bubble that’s bound to pop…
If we factor in EVs, many countries are banning the sales of ICE and like it or not, state trendsetter, California has publically announced they’re looking into legislation to ban ICE sales for 2040…If that happens, don’t be surprised to see other CARB states jump on board with the ban…
Also Tesla EVs has now spoiled the performance spec party…After the muscle car era, it took decades for their to be affordable performance offerings…Gen3 IROC-Z Camaro, 0-60 was just under 8 seconds…Why bother overpaying for one from a collector and pay for all the expensive maintenance it will require?
The future for your kids will be self-driving fleets of vehicles…You’ll be picked at your front door, can work, watch a movie or get “frisky” with your significant other on your way to work…
As the pendulum swings toward the hi tech electric car. Society as a whole will turn it’s back on the traditional (ICE) powered chapter. The EV will become part of our every day lives even with the bureaucratic restrictions that are certain to take not only the fun, but some of the danger out of the experience.
As time passes their smooth reliable hassle free ownership will leave the driving enthusiast yearning for more satisfaction beyond the swoosh of electric transportation. The pendulum now begins to swing the other way for those that are yearning for the rumbling freedoms of the classics days of the past.
It may take a while!
RED BARCHETTA
So where dose Gen X fall into this article? People born from 1965 to 82, they are in the position to splurge a little. Are they interested in classic cars like Boomers or do they fall more in line with Millennials in terms of interest in classic cars? I am on the tail end of Gen X but for me personally if I won the lottery I might buy a few classics but I would not spend my money now to buy or fix up a classic car, just not enough passion. I do however love cars and the industry but pay much more attention to what’s going on now and prefer a new car at all times.
The point though is Gen X can still keep this Classic Car market alive for many more decades if they have a interest in it. My guess is it would be more the older Gen X people, ones entering or in thier 50s that would want classic cars since they grew up around a lot older cars or had friends and relatives that owned them.
GenX is very loosely defined and the larger the date range the more inaccuracies you’ll receive as a person born is 1965 is far different than who was born in 1982…By you yourself saying “tail end” I believe you mean you’re on younger side, if that’s the case, there’s a better generational term to use, “Oregon Trail Generation” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Trail_Generation where you were born between 1977 to 1981 and “remembering a time before the digital age, but barely”…
But the big question will be maintenance in the future, will replacement parts be affordable? Will ICE mechanics be a niche and expensive breed? Will fluids and fuel be affordable enough to justify owning one? Really comes down to the horse and buggy, once the automobile replaced them the horse and buggy there were still a handful of collectors and are even some to this day but it’s the extreme minority…
Here is the problem. The older cars are getting out of reach. The cars of the 80’s and early 90’s only have a few real options like a GN, Camaro, TA or Mustang.
The later cars like the 4th gens/mustangs may be what gives them the chance to buy in on performance.
Gen X is what will get me to retirement before this whole thing declines.
Mllenials are going be the end as most have little to no interest in driving let alone cars.
The EV is going to become like a old Cell Phone as the old models will not be of interest as there will be better models out. Also the cost to restore a Eav will not be more than the value.
Most people will wake up and realize one they are not going to watch a movie going to work as they do not live that far away. They will find highways will become very regulated as to where and when you travel all in the name of society and preventing traffic. They will find they will lose the freedom of movement.
The really sad thing is life is more than 0-60. It is about the sound, smell and gear matching of a great car. Finding the right line as you heal to tow is where the enjoyment is not sitting in a pod that has nothing more to offer than a elevator.
Just sit and listen to Rush and Red Barchetta and read the lyrics. That is what it is all about not Houston getting here to their.
After several decades of mini vans, Honda and Toyota cars should we be surprised there is little love for cars.
As you can read here that some here just don’t get it as the automobile was not just transportation. It was a social thing, Economic thing as many industries and businesses were tied to it. It was entertainment, it was a movie star like in Smokey and the Bandit.
As for kids today they are smart but they are so isolated and in many cases are not taught wisdom. Our education system really teaches little in the ways of wisdom and making good choices. Each generation just keeps compounding the poor choices in life.
Few people suffer bad luck it generally leads back to poor choices.
It is not all the eduction folks as the are generally dealing with so many kids with one parent if they are lucky and way too many don’t have one good viable wise parent either.
I agree to nearly everything you say, but I believe you understand there are people who just don’t care about cars in the way you, myself and countless others find zero joy to collecting stamps…I did a lot of street night drag racing and my late teens and early 20s which evolved into myself preferring autoXing…I can tell you, I much prefer automatics and in many cases as is with the GM/Ford 10 speed, actually faster than manuals…Overall point being, you can “force” people into manuals or anything but not everyone will enjoy it…
Agree with both of you guys. I consider myself a “car guy”. Have no use for a transportation appliance.
If you are racing autos are great for drag racing. Autocross generally you only used on or two gears at best.
But for road racing and just fun driving out on the back roads like most a manual is more fun.
Yes there are many who hold no love for the car. The truth is they are the majority and we are becoming a increasing minority.
In the past there was at least some pride of ownership even if you were not into cars. You owned a specific brand for the label it placed on you.
Today people just don’t care about much other than crash rating. Payment, MPG, reliability. Outside of that they just don’t care what it is.
We are now seeing a growth of people who are minimalist. They like small cars tiny houses and want to carry a small foot print. These people just get hard when they see a Smart Car or Nano.
Even though they like to minimize things they still will buy the bigger phone and lap tops lol.
Just different takes on life. The thing is they will dictate the future of products and we will just have to learn how to take what we can get till it changes again.
These folks get older many will expand to buy the things they went with out because they did not think they wanted it and now found out what they missed out on.
It is one thing to play GTA but it is much different to take a wheel of open to sports car on a back road. I treasured many a drive be it in a 59 Vette or I’d it was even a lowly Sunbeam Alpine.
Way over generalizing here; millennials are a group age and nothing more…You still have rich and poor, “red” and “blue”, introverts and extroverts, strong moral values vs those who don’t care, etc…Due to group fitness, I hang out with a lot of them and none that I’m aware of drive a small car or live in a tiny home…If they don’t already own a SUV, many aspire to own (or lease) a luxury one, they want to be able to carry their surfboard or snowboard…Yet immediately I can think of two guys who drive newer Mustang GTs, a guy with a Vette and several who own old beat up wranglers…For the housing, where I live the common theme is you want to be as close to the beach as possible so often you have these 4-6 bedrooms…Tiny homes are a common trend for those who are looking to save money perhaps a decade prior to retiring…
There are verables to all groups but as a whole this generation is much less material an$ most get offended many things in life.
They also believe much of what is on the web.
I work with a bunch of them. They are smart but support politics that would end their jobs. Note I did not say they are wise.
As for generalizing before retirement people down size not tiny house size. Many go from the yuppie Mc Mansion as they are were called to the much smaller house or to a condo.
I was always fascinated how they would buy these big houses and own two BMW’s but could not afford to furnish all the rooms. Point less.
Hey what about us Gen X’ers?! 1976 here from Oregon and probably fall into the Oregon Trail Gen. as well and I love old Classics. Actually, I work for one of the largest Classic Car Consignment Showrooms in the nation. We are still pretty busy in Scottsdale, AZ and just opened a new larger showroom! I think there will always be a great market for Classic cars. My baby boomer parents are at retirement age and are still looking for a restored ’55 or ’56 Chevy Bel Air and most of my Gen X buddies from high school with great jobs love Classics as well.
back in my day young people were car crazy because it was one of the best places to have sex.
Take a growing population, add tinder and add self driving cars and you get a lot more than of that… 😀
Well for all the longer than some of you hold out it would fit the average short commute.
People are going to wise up too late that all this free time you are promised will not add up all that much for most of us. Outside the LA traffic jams most of us do not spend all that much time in the. Add to this the promise of no traffic we should spend even less time.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/15/news/us-commutes-traffic-cars/index.html
1.Los Angeles — 81 hours/year
2.Washington, D.C. — 75 hours
3.San Francisco — 75 hours
4.Houston — 74 hours
5.New York — 73 Hours
6.Seattle, Wash. — 66 hours
7.Boston — 64 hours
8.Chicago — 60 hours
9.Atlanta — 59 hours
10.Honolulu — 49 hours
Really!!! Honolulu???
I’ve always thought there should be a tax incentive for working within a short distance from home.
If our law makers are really concerned about air quality (our health) and the amount of US currency going to the middle east.
As I’ve previously stated, I live in L.A., but have lived and visited multiple states and have encounter long durations bad traffic (20MPH or less) in almost any major metro…I’ll also add, I visited 100 miles south San Diego and 100 miles north to Santa Barbara, in both scenarios I rarely was able to hit the speed limit and at times was in long stretches of stop and go…These were on a random weekend; good ole coastal SoCal first world problems…
For those companies promising no traffic, they often believe that once roads are self-driving only that future roads will be built to better address traffic, a lot more highway like onramps/off ramps…I’d take a Vegas bet no traffic (in all major Metros) that will not happen in my lifetime…
I visit San Diego often and do the a 5 run.
Just depends on the timing as to traffic. My last trip out I did the 5 North in the diamond lane at 95 mph just to keep with the traffic.
There were a lot of cars but man they were moving.
There are times it is bad too like the beltway in DC.
Now on the other hand I have driven the PCH In a 911 to SF and back on the 5 in the Valley. No pod can give you the same enjoyment.
The north run was fun but coming south on 5 with little to no traffic we were moving.
I rode my electric bicycle along the Mt Vernon trail from Columbia Pike / FourMileRun to Capitol Hill, a 10-mile ride, at 7:00-7:45am weekdays for 4 years. I rode PAST cars every day. With my electric bike, I rode it rain or shine, and parked it in my workroom. My colleagues parked their cars over a mile away for $75/week. Remember the article here about a GM electric bike and commenters were “Electric bikes are for poofters?” Well, go ahead, sit in traffic for hours to protect your manhood.
My commute is 10 minutes each way, but at -35 and wind chill in the -40’s, no walking or electric bike for me.
This is an entirely different statement where you mention “depends on the timing” and “bad too like the beltway in DC” from your original comment of “Outside the LA traffic jams most of us do not spend all that much time”…
We can’t always pick a time to avoid traffic, driving 5mins in stop and go traffic frustrates the average Joe…
Mid-Engine Corvette’s Twin-Turbo LT7 V8 Fully Revealed!!!!!! (?)
http://www.gminsidenews.com/articles/mid-engine-corvette-gets-twin-turbo-dohc-v8-christmas/
I think that the kinds of cars that are currently fetching big bucks will generally be worth less going forward. The price points for most of these cars is reaching the point where the average guy can’t afford to buy it, but also the prime audience is aging and dying. The 50s cars, and even the muscle cars are becoming irrelevant to the younger generations. They aren’t the kinds of cars that kids today grew up seeing, or dreamed about owning. I come from the tail end of Generation X, and I feel that I have a very different style. I have had an attraction to the big Broughamy style cars of the 70s and 80s from a very young age. It was big Lincolns, Caddys, Buicks and Oldsmobiles that caught my eye and still do. I can walk right past a Corvette or some fancy exotic at a show. If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all. I can’t drive a stick, and never had any desire to do so. I would love to get an early 80s Toronado or Riviera someday. It’s easy to dream when nice quality ones are only $4000-$8000. I’m looking for something to cruise around in the summertime, and maybe end up at a couple shows with. I have no desire to get involved with a project or restoration or tinkering with. I just don’t enjoy getting dirty. I’ve always viewed cars more as rolling art, and prefer comfort over performance. I may be an oddball in that respect, but I know very few people my age or younger that have interest in cars of any type beyond a rolling appliance that gets them from point A to point B. It will be very interesting to see where the market goes from here, but buying a car as an investment is a pretty dumb idea anyway.
We could always collect stamps.
https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/market-trends
I love this! It makes me happy to hear! I have zero problems with the idea that classic cars prices will fall.
For one I have zero ideas of getting rid of any of my old classic or modern hot rods so what they sale for is not my problem!
This also mean that the weak minded people who have to give up their cars will have to take a huge money it on their investment! Which is where I come in and undercut the seller and he has to sale because he’s broke
And two even if they stop selling ICE cars it’s not like the govt is going to take all gas cars off of the road in one year. It will take decades to weed them out.
Good, then maybe I can finally afford some kind of 1969 Chevy. Nova, Camaro, Chevelle, decisions, decisions.