Cadillac is in the midst of what is very likely the biggest transitionary period in its 100-plus-year history. Headed by former Audi USA and Infiniti chief Johan de Nysschen, the brand is under new management and a $12 billion investment from General Motors to re-establish nearly everything about itself — from brand image and dealer experience, to its vehicle naming structure and product portfolio.
Arguably the most important area of this renaissance will be product: de Nysschen has gone on record several times in saying that the brand will release 11 new vehicles by the year 2021. We’ve put our collective minds together to predict what those eleven models could be.
1. Cadillac CT6
At the time that de Nysschen unveiled the 11 by 2021 figure, the Cadillac CT6 was new enough to where we’re counting towards eleven.
A short-wheelbase BMW 7 Series, short-wheelbase Audi A8, short-wheelbase Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and Lexus LS rival in size, the Omega-platform-based Cadillac CT6 features, most specs, but not in price. It went on sale in China in January of this year, and in North America in March. In its first three months in the U.S. market, it accounted for 1,017 U.S. deliveries.
- Official name: Cadillac CT6
- Body styles: four-door sport-luxury sedan
- Platform: Omega
- Key rivals:Â Mercedes-Benz S-Class, BMW 7 Series, Lexus LS, Audi A8 (in size, features, driving experience — but not in price)
- Cadillac CT6 sales numbers and results
2. Cadillac XT5
The story of the new Cadillac XT5 follows that of the CT6: we believe that it is part of the 11 by 2021 count, since it was also launching at the time of de Nysschen’s comments.
The XT5, which replaces the SRX and rides on GM’s new C1 platform, competes directly with the Lexus RX, and Lincoln MKX. It accounted for 2,719 deliveries in May 2016 — its first full month on the market.
- Official name: Cadillac XT5
- Body styles: four-door crossover utility vehicle (CUV)
- Platform: C1 (short wheelbase)
- Key rivals:Â Lexus RX, Lincoln MKX
- Cadillac XT5 sales numbers and results
3. Sub-ATS Sedan: CT2 Or CT1
A new luxury car segment suddenly came to be over the last few years. The segment introduces a small sedan positioned below traditional C-Segment sedans. Examples include Audi’s new A3 slotting below the A4 and Mercedes-Benz introducing the CLA-Class below the C-Class. In turn, the introduction of the A3 and CLA-Class push traditional compact luxury entries (like the A4 and C-Class) up in size, price, and features.
The name for the segment has been a point of contention at times, with some calling it in the new compact, while others referring to vehicles as subcompact. Regardless of the name, what’s vital to know is that this very segment represents the only growth opportunity outside of crossovers, and Cadillac has been missing out on a rather sizable sales opportunity. Luckily, the division is hard at work on a vehicle to be in this segment.
What we’ve heard about Cadillac’s entry has been somewhat of a mixed bag: initial reports indicated that the sub-ATS model would ride on GM’s excellent rear-drive Alpha platform. However, recent rumblings have placed the vehicle as sharing the front-drive D2 platform with the likes of the 2016 Chevy Cruze and Opel Astra, though Cadillac has officially refuted these claims.
- Expected name: Cadillac CT2 or Cadillac CT1
- Expected body styles: four-door sedan a certainty; hatchback and coupe possible
- Expected platform: D2
- Key rivals: Audi A3 family, Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class, next-generation BMW 1-Series, Lexus HS
4. ATS Replacement: CT3
The Cadillac ATS was a solid effort at showing the world that Cadillac can, in fact, make a vehicle to take on segment-defining compact luxury cars — the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class. Whereas the first-generation ATS established Cadillac’s presence in the segment, its CT# replacement is expected to improve on the first-gen model, addressing the various gripes and concerns. A high-performance CT3-V would likely top the range and compete with the BMW M3 and others.
- Expected name: Cadillac CT3 and Cadillac CT3-V
- Expected body styles: four-door sedan and coupe a certainty; wagon and convertible a possibility
- Expected platform: Alpha 2 (short wheelbase)
- Key rivals: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Lexus IS, Jaguar XE, Alfa Romeo Giulia, Audi A4 family
5. CTS Replacement: CT5
When we think about it, the Cadillac we know today can traced back to the first-generation CTS. The second-generation model further planted the brand in the sport-luxury space, albeit straddling the compact and midsize segments, while the current, third-generation model re-positioned the nameplate squarely in the midsize luxury space, where it gives the BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, Audi A6, and Lexus GS a run for their money. Its CT# replacement is expected to further improve on the formula, improving on the shortcomings of the current product. A high-performance CT5-V would likely sit at the top of the CT5 hierarchy.
- Expected name: Cadillac CT5 and Cadillac CT5-V
- Expected body styles: four-door sedan a certainty; coupe, convertible, wagon possible
- Expected platform: Alpha 2 (longwheelbase)
- Key rivals: BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, Lexus GS, Jaguar XF, Audi A6 family
6. B-Segment Subcompact Crossover: XT1 Or XT2
Cadillac was caught flat-footed in the hotly-contested crossover space, only having the SRX and its replacement, the XT5. Meanwhile, other luxury automakers have filled out their portfolios with several crossover models that range in size from subcompact to full-size. As a result, Cadillac will be shifting its crossover offerings into high gear in the coming years with an onslaught of new CUVs, one of which we expect to compete in the B-segment.
The two-row crossover could ride either on GM’s Gamma (shared with the Chevy Trax and Buick Encore/Opel Mokka) or GM’s D2 platform (shared with the Buick Envision, 2017 Chevrolet Equinox and 2017 GMC Terrain) and take on the BMW X1, Mercedes-Benz GLA-Class, Audi Q3, and Infiniti’s upcoming QX30.
- Expected name: Cadillac XT1 or Cadillac XT2
- Expected body styles: four-door crossover utility vehicle (CUV)
- Expected platform: Gamma or D2
- Key rivals: BMW X1, Mercedes-Benz GLA-Class, Audi Q3, Infiniti QX30
7. C-Segment Compact Crossover: XT3
Continuing Cadillac’s crossover offensive could be a new C-segment crossover. We expect this crossover to be larger than the XT1/XT2, ride on a variant of the highly-touted, rear-drive Alpha platform shared with the CT3 and CT5, and be larger than its B-segment CUV cousin. Such a vehicle would compete with the likes of the BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC-Class, Infiniti QX50, and Porsche Macan.
- Expected name: Cadillac XT3
- Expected body styles: four-door crossover utility vehicle (CUV)
- Expected platform: Alpha 2
- Key rivals: BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC-Class, Infiniti QX50, Porsche Macan
8. Entry Full-Size Crossover: XT6
Taking the crossover push one step further is a vehicle we like to describe as an entry-level fullsize luxury vehicle. In essence a larger XT5, we expect this CUV to ride on GM’s long-wheelbase C1 platform shared with the 2018 Buick Enclave and 2018 Chevrolet Traverse. Compared to the XT5, the primary differentiator of this vehicle, which we have tentatively dubbed XT6, will be its greater length and three rows of seating. It will rival other “larger-than-midsize, but not-quite-full-size” CUVs, including the Infiniti QX60, Acura MDX, Audi Q7, Volvo XC90, and the rumored Lexus RX-L and Lincoln Aviator.
- Expected name: Cadillac XT6
- Expected body styles: four-door crossover utility vehicle (CUV)
- Expected platform: C1 (long wheelbase)
- Key rivals:
- Current: Infiniti QX60, Acura MDX, Volvo XC90, Audi Q7
- Upcoming: rumored Lexus RX-L, Lincoln Aviator
9. Full-Size Flagship Crossover: XT7 Or XT8
The final Pièce De Résistance of Cadillac’s crossover offensive is expected to be a high-end full-size, three-row CUV. We expect this particular CUV to essentially be a crossover variant of the Cadillac CT6 or rumored Cadillac CT8 riding on GM’s Omega platform.
At the time of this writing, the key rival of this crossover be the Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class. However, BMW, Audi and Lexus are all expected to enter this space with full-size crossovers of their own.
- Expected name: Cadillac XT7 or Cadillac XT8
- Expected body styles: four-door crossover utility vehicle (CUV)
- Expected platform: Omega
- Key rivals:
- Current: Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class
- Upcoming: BMW X7, Audi Q9, full-size LS-based Lexus CUV
10. Fifth-Generation Escalade
Much like the Mercedes-Benz’s legendary Gelandewagen, the Cadillac Escalade will likely continue on as a big, bold, body-on-frame luxury SUV. There’s just too much caché and profit margins to see Cadillac discontinue it as things stand. And for its fifth generation, the Escalade will switch over to GM’s next-generation pickup truck and SUV platform, rumored as T1XX, as suggested by reports.
Expect today’s “regular” and extended-length variants to continue on with three rows of seating. Besides its body-on-frame roots, one of the primary differentiators of the Escalade from the XT7 or XT8 crossover could be its significantly higher towing capacity. Not to mention a more imposing road presence.
- Expected name: Cadillac Escalade and Escalade ESV
- Expected body styles: four-door sport utility vehicle (SUV) and extended-length four-door sport utility vehicle (SUV)
- Expected platform: T1XX
- Key rivals:
- Current: Mercedes-Benz G-Class, Infiniti QX80, Lexus LX
11. Full-Size Flagship Sedan: CT8
Despite a report to the contrary, we believe that the Cadillac CT8 hasn’t been entirely cancelled, but has instead taken a bask seat in favor of more rapid crossover development, which the market appears to be craving much more than full-size ultra-luxury sedans.
As mentioned just a few days ago, we can see the CT8 going one of two ways: a larger, more luxurious version of the CT6, or an entirely different kind of vehicle in the class of the Bentley Flying Spur or Rolls Royce Ghost.
- Expected name: Cadillac CT8
- Expected body styles: full-size, four-door ultra-luxury sedan
- Expected platform: Omega
- Key rivals: currently unknown
In Summary
By the time 2021 rolls around, we expect Cadillac to have replaced the ATS and CTS with their next-generation successors named CT3 and CT5, respectively. We also expect the brand to have introduced an all-new, fifth-generation Escalade while adding a slew of all-new crossovers to accompany the XT5, thereby quenching today’s seemingly unbridled thirst for crossovers.
| Segment: | Subcompact | Compact | Midsize | Full-Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Car: | CT1 or CT2 | CT3 | CT5 | CT6 and CT8 |
| Utility: | XT2 or XT2 | XT3 | XT5 and XT6 | XT7 or XT8 and Escalade |
Wish List Items
Though the following Cadillac vehicles didn’t make the 11 by 2021 list, we remain hopeful that they come some time after:
- Midsize sport-luxury crossover on the coveted Alpha platform to rival the BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class, Infiniti QX70, and Porsche Cayenne. Cadillac President de Nysschen has even discussed such a vehicle in the past.
- Two-seat, RWD coupe/roadster along the lines of the BMW Z4, Mercedes-Benz SLC-Class, and Porsche Cayman/Boxster and Jaguar F-Type.
- Sports car/roadster along the lines of the Mercedes-Benz SL-Class and Audi R8
- Coupe versions of each crossover, along the lines of the BMW X4 and X6, and the Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class Coupe
Notes
- Our list is based on the notion that Cadillac’s promise of 11 models by 2021 refers to a model being a model family, rather than one individual vehicle. As such, we count the replacement of the ATS as a single model, rather than one model for the replacement of the ATS Sedan and a second model for the replacement of the ATS Coupe.
- We omitted the time frames for the release of each model on purpose, as including such details would be the equivalent of guessing
Comments
I thought I read somewhere that Cadillac is going back to the in betweens?
No. What in betweens?
I think he’s talking about the ATS replacement and CTS replacements growing in size to straddle the size segments similar to how the gen 1 & 2 CTS did. De Nysschen did mention getting rid of the Chinese market long-wheelbase models in favor of global “right size” dimensions.
Personally, I think that’s a good strategy to bumb up each sub-CT6 car to keep the sub-ATS as the spiritual successor to the original ATS. Especially since BMW is rumored to be planning a 2 Series Gran coupe, growing the 3 Series, and only building the FWD 1 Series for China. The current ATS interior volume is cramped for compact luxury, but not for subcompact luxury.
But the in-between-segment positioning (or tweening) isn’t actually what is happening, nor will it happen. What is happening is automotive escalation at its finest thanks to the introduction of new/lesser models like the 1 Series, CLA-Class and A3.
In more detail: what’s taking place is a re-defining of the traditional compact and midsize sedan classes. Thanks to the introduction of the CLA, 1er, and A3, the new C, 3er, and A4 have all grown or will all grow in size. This impacts the midsize class, as the E, 5er, and A6 will also grow or already have grown compared to their predecessors. The behavior is similar to a domino effect.
In a similar fashion, the next-gen ATS/CT3 and CTS/CT5 will grow in size to make room for the CT1/CT2, which will rival the CLA and A3. This doesn’t need to happen with crossovers since the segments of those vehicles have only recently become established, and are still rather in the grand scheme of the industry.
Hope that makes sense.
I remember another article was saying that it was going to be an ATS and CTS replacement combined
They’re not being combined.
I think I saw this on GM Inside News. It was suggested the CTS would effectively die, while the ATS would grow in size and straddle the space between the ATS and CTS as we know them today. Which, personally, I think would be a horrible idea. I don’t think it’s true, because it’s the complete opposite of what Cadillac has been doing starting with the ATS, which is compete DIRECTLY with the Germans. One of the complaints about the 2nd-gen CTS was that it was too big to compete with the 3-Series and too small to compete with the 5-Series. For the first time Cadillac has an answer to both cars, and it would only make sense to enhance and improve upon the existing formula rather than abandon it altogether. Not competing directly with competitors is what got Cadillac into trouble decades ago. Sure, sales haven’t been the best lately, but it’s going to take time as Cadillac continues its transition into a properly competitive automaker.
That’s what I was lowkey referring to even though a lot of folks on here doesn’t get along with gm@!$&*%news
Just to use some logic here: there will be tons of room between the next-gen ATS/CT3 and the CT6. That should tell us something 🙂
Looking at the Cadillac power-point presentations that listed all the new vehicles’ categories, it would seem that there will be no ATS and CTS replacement. One car will replace both. There will however be three cars that straddle the compact and mid-lux categories, I assume a coupe, convertible a fastback sedan- presumably that replaces CTS? It not at all clear to me at least.
https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/154686/cadillac-future-segment-coverage_large.jpg
https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/185484/cadillac-future-product-slide-august-2015_large.jpg
Not sure how accurate that is… though if it is, it would be highly disappointing.
It’s pretty obvious that the nomenclature will be a carbon copy of what the Germans are doing.
It makes sense actually to have the “right sized” models, as the 3/C/A4 have all grown in size to near mid-size lux class. This makes the Chinese LWB ATS a perfect fit as the replacement for the CT3, while using the current ATS as a CT1 model. So there’s no need to create a new platform just repackaging with updates to the interior and exterior.
That’s a perfect scenario. No need whatsoever to make the subcompact D2XX.
I am glad to see GM Authority agreeing to the fact that the CT8 is not dead like so many seem to think.
This is the 50th Cadillac turn around plan since the roll out of Art and Science. I can remember sites like Motley Fool trumping Cadillac as born again, saved and just peachy less than two years ago.
I doubt Nysschen will be at Cadillac two years from now and I’m unimpressed with his efforts so far–Dare Greatly, Cadillac House-as-tourist-attraction, and the new naming convention are quite similar to what Johan did with Infinity before his premature departure.
Cadillac is finally getting a full line up and this is something to be thankful for. Next it must gain street cred and become a symbol of status in the luxury marketplace.
Marketing is key, but it’s time for GM to give in to Nysschen’s desire for a fresh design language since Cadillac has exchanged stealth edges for success in the Chinese market. At the NY auto show I couldn’t help but ponder how Cadillac would do with Avista-like or even Aveair-like styling?
Slow growth at Buick has stunted Buick’s ability to grow, move upmarket and transform into a Lexus/Audi or even Lincoln fighter. This issue has left Buick to compete with the likes of Ford Titanium and other mainstream brands which in turn harms Chevrolet–could this be why Malibu lacks AWD and a V6?
GM must with fix or discard Cadillac.
JDN is not going anywhere soon as GM fully understands what it takes to rebuild a luxury brand with new management. There is still equity in Cadillac.
Am I the only one confused with by the naming. I thought it would have been
Subcompact = CT1 XT1 / coupe CT2 XT2
Compact = CT3 XT3 /coupe CT4 XT4
Midsize= CT5 XT5 / coupe CT6 XT6
Fullsize= CT7 XT7 /coupe CT8 XT8
Flagship CT9 / Escalade=XT9
But with them naming CT6 what it is everything else seems to be off like you don’t know if the Subcompact is CT1 or CT2 and you don’t even have a CT4 listed. Just seems like they already messed-up the new naming and I really liked the idea.
I’m with you Curtis. Naming CT6, a CT6 made no sense from the beginning if they want to get the naming in line with what BMW does for example. The CT6, with its dimensions falls into a full size bracket. It should have been named CT7 in my opinion.
I get your point but the CT6 is not the same size as the S-Class here in NA because MB no longer sells a SWB version here so it is not a direct competitor to that category of vehicle yet.
Naming a CT7 would automatically have people thinking it is in the 7 Series category when in fact it is a little smaller.
Yet the CT6 is the same size as the S-Class:
Overall length:
CT6: 204.1
S-Class: 206.5
Wheelbase:
CT6: 122.4
S-Class: 124.6
Being within 2 inches in this segment puts it into the same size class.
Hence, I agree that the CT6 should have been called CT7 from the get-go.
Personally, I would not be too concerned about what’s what until the actual reveal. I am more than content we are getting products.
CT1 Front Drive = I don’t buy (Haldex awd included)
CT1 Rear Drive = I buy
It’s simply more difficult than ever for Cadillac to try and copy Audi/BMW/MB with vehicle lines. Those brands have a significant market in Europe. Cadillac has basically zero business in that market. With this in mind, Cadillac has North America and China, both of which are moving rather quickly towards CUV’s. Cadillac has too many sedans right now. ATS,CTS,XTS,CT6. If they keep the ATS replacement the same size, that is as small as you need, GM has other brands to sell against smaller subcompact FWD competitors. 3 sizes (correctly positioned) is plenty. If you want a low volume coupe/conv. version of one of the 3 that is fine,but the core business is in CUV/SUV.
The sub-compact (CT2) will not be on the D2 platform…
The CT3 will replace the ATS….there has been some discussion that the Coupe/Convertible will be the ST3…..no decision as yet. There will be a VSport, and a V….some discussion about CST4 V….on the Alpha 2
The CT5 will replace the CTS on the Alpha 2 LWB. There is strong consideration for a shooting brake to follow…..CSW5
There will be Coupe/Convertible/ and Sport Wagon variants……there will be PHEV variants…….
The XT6 will not be on the C1 platform……
The XT7 will rival the Escalade in all areas except size. It will be on par with the GLS in size. The Escalade will receive it’s last refresh/re-engineering and be replaced after 2020. It will rfemain the top Cadillac SUV until being replaced by the XT8
The XT8 will not be the Pièce De Résistance of Cadillac’s SUV line-up. It will be luxurious, and on par with the best from MB/Audi/BMW/ and Lexus in features and technology. The XT8 will replace the Escalade after 2020. The Pièce De Résistance of Cadillac’s SUV line-up will be the XT9. On par with the Bentayga, and mostly bespoke in colors, interiors, features, and technologies….($200,000+) ….will not arrive until 2024>
The current CT6 is actually in the same segment as the BMW 6 Series, Lexus LS460, and Hyundai Genesis (2017). There will be a CT6 PHEV this year, as a 2017, and a CT6 VSport in 2018, if not sooner. It will be a 4.5 liter TTV8 (500-550hp) …
The CT7 will be a large, luxury Coupe….more on this later…
The CT8 will be Cadillac’s answer to the MB S Class S600/ Audi A8/ BMW 8 Series. It will be on the Omega LWB platform. Very luxurious and $150,000+
The CT9 will be Cadillac’s largest, and most luxurious sedan. Think RR/MB Maybach/Bentley/BMW 9 Series/Audi A10….it will not arrive until after 2025 and $250,000+
By 2020 Cadillac will have a full line-up of vehicles…automobiles, sedans, Coupe(s) a Convertible, and Sport Wagon, as well as CUV/SUV’s…..and many variants of PHEV’s. There will be 3 V’s, and 5 VSport’s.
After 2020…..
Sometime after 2025, closer to 2027 look for the CXT1 (naming acronyms have not been decided at this time). The CIEN, ZORA variant, which itself will have 3 variants.
Look for……
9/10 spd. tc/wc
TTV6 (possibly Turbo Diesel) /TT or Supercharged V8/ V8 PHEV…
700+ hp.
$225,000-$450,000+
mostly bespoke
limited production but not as drastic as the Ford GT
Nice! I’m excited but I am still confused about the Escalade being replace though.
Maybe we’ll know something closer to the time being.
Escalade will still be an Escalade. It will still be based on the next gen fullsized pick up platform.
The Escalade brand has to much cache and equity plus makes Cadillac to money to throw away.
Sales of the Escalade seem immune to gas prices and economic turmoil.
It is the highest volume large luxury SUV or crossover on the market currently.
Escalade will be replaced…..
It’s almost inevitable that there’s going to be a LWB C1XX CUV. Whether it’s going to be an XT7 or XT6 remains to be seen.
Can we hope for the ct7-ct8 before the 2020? when?
If I remember correctly, according to Cadillac, the CT6 and XT5 “are not” part of the eleven Cadillacs coming before ’21.
Anyway, it is a great time to be a Cadillac fan. Although not perfect, the CT6 and XT5 are one of the best Cadillacs yet.
By the time 2021 gets here the current CT6 and XT5 will have gone through a refresh and will be counted in the 11 models . This is what I got from an interview with Johan on Dateline Detroit a couple of weeks ago .
Mary Barra is completely behind ressurecting Cadillac’s image to what it once was . Alot of the buzz on the internet has the CT8 as being canceled , but I believe it is still a plausible program that has just been put aside until Cadillac can get their SUV / CUV portfolio out into the market . It’s going to be a very aggressive launch of new product for Cadillac , I hope the economy doesn’t get into the way if we are really starting a slowdown here in the states .
A bit surprised in that there’s no thought for a super-luxury mid-engine coupe with the primary mission of stealing the market from the best of Europe by offering superior performance at half the price; this could even be a fuel cell electric car that features the GM Skateboard concept of a few years ago with all-wheel-drive and all-wheel-steering.
Very nice and comprehensive write-up. I can tell you put a lot of effort into it.
My only concern is that I hope GM can introduce these vehicles and complete Cadillac’s transformation, even if there is a market downturn; which I expect to happen within the next 3 years.
I think Cadillac is making a big mistake not keeping and renaming the XTS. The XTS is one of Cadillac best sellers and very profitable. Lexus and Audi does very well with their front wheel drive models. Once again Cadillac is ignoring what the market wants and doing what they want. There is room and demand in the market for both the front wheel drive and rear wheel drive cars. Cadillac has a rich history of making tremendous front wheel sedans.
I completely disagree.
That “rich history” was by far the darkest time in Cadillac history.
Those front wheel drive sedans were a result of cost cutting and profit chasing at the expense of the consumers. Cadillac didn’t have that senior citizen stigma in the 50’s and 60’s, back when they were considered world class. That stigma came when GM started skimping on quality and engineering, so they had no choice but to target less affluent buyers, which became nostalgic old people. Cadillac is returning to their 20’s-60’s heritage. They’d better not look back to the 80’s.
Audi is well known for Quattro, their permanent longitudinal-engine 4WD system, not FWD.
The RX benefits from undercutting an entire class size (midsize for compact prices). Darn near anybody can own an ES, the LS is the real aspirational vehicle. Outside of the RX and ES, everything else is RWD and commands a higher price.
If FWD was what the market wanted, Buick, Lincoln, and Acura would be on top and people would be willing to pay +100k for a RLX, or even an XTS. Name anyone willing to pay over 50 grand for an XTS.
The front wheel drive Lexus ES is the third most popular luxury car in the United States and it is more expensive the BMW 3 series. The front wheel drive MKZ is also among the ten top most popular cars sold in the United States. There are several top selling luxury car brands that have front wheel drive in their portfolio Lexus, Audi, Acura, Lincoln. There are many people who prefer and enjoy front wheel drive luxury cars. Cadillac top sellers are XTS, and SRX (now changed to XT5) which are both front wheel drive.
I am willing to pay up to $70k I choose the XT5 because I enjoy the front wheel drive configuration. I keep two luxury cars and trade them every three years. I have own STS, DTS, SRX, XTS, XT5, MKZ, and considered the ES. I enjoy front wheel drive luxury cars.
Victor – I am curious what it is that you enjoy about FWD luxury cars. And what do you shoot about such cars that isn’t done better in a similarly-sized RWD luxury car?
That said, while you might be willing to pay that much for a FWD luxury car, the market has overwhelmingly spoken in favor of RWD-based luxury vehicles in volume and transaction prices (and I would also argue, customer experience in terms of driving, design proportions, and more).
It’s literally one of the most bizarre preferences I’ve read about drive configurations. I’ve read and spoken to people who either prefer RWD or indifferent, but almost never heard from people who prefer FWD.
As you said, Alex, the market gives undeniable evidence that after a certain price point ($50-60k) FWD is either unacceptable, or the people that prefer or are indifferent to FWD drops off significantly. That’s why you almost never hear about the Acura RLX.
Then again, I’ve been seeing this kind of thinking on GMI and the comments section of a few hipsters on Jalopnik, but none as fervent as Victor here.
Sure, the ES is a popular vehicle. Does it, however, command the minds and hearts luxury car buyers? Not at all; it’s simply a nice appliance. The same goes for the MKZ, TL/TLX and MKS.
Now, is there a market for FWD-based luxury vehicles? Sure. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that they are in some way better, superior, or otherwise more desirable than RWD luxury cars. FWDers are bought by people who don’t care or know what wheels are driving their cars. They are not for the discerning set, let’s put it that way.
Cadillac *is* for the discerning buyer. Or at least it should be/is aspiring to be. for everything else, there is always Buick.
Alex, your conception that the “discerning buyer” wants rear wheel drive cars is all in your head and is your bias. Warren Buffet last two cars were Cadillac DTS and Cadillac XTS. Warren Edward Buffett is an American business magnate, investor and philanthropist. He is the most successful investor in the world. Buffett is the chairman, CEO and largest shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, and is consistently ranked among the world’s wealthiest people. Warren Buffett is possibly one of the greatest discerning buyers and investors in modern history. Facts are what they are. Cadillac tops sellers are XTS and SRX (XT5.) it is sad to see Cadillac walking away from its heritage and strengths. There is room in the market place for discerning buyer to choose. Lexus, Audi, Acura, and Lincoln, offer front wheel drive. Rumor has it that Mercedes will offer have front wheel drive vehicles for the discerning driver. When a company responds to the buyer’s discernment then that is the company which becomes the most successful. Some discerners want front wheel others want rear wheel, and other want all-wheel.
Funny you mention Mercedes-Benz’s FWD car, the CLA. It’s considered a cheap poser’s car, and C Class buyers and up wouldn’t be caught dead in one.
Discerning buyers are typically the early adopters that bring in your mainstream customers.
Since Cadillac wants to lower their average buyer age and attract Millennials, consider this: Most of us grew up in the 80s and 90s, when front wheel drive started becoming ubiquitous as it is today. Part of luxury is, without a doubt, offering the buyer something that’s uncommon. For Cadillac to switch to FWD/AWD, not only would they be clashing heavily with Buick products, they’d be offering something that already feels like your average car.
Victor — you’re quite off base here. Before I go into what will undoubtedly be a long reply, I should say that I am bewildered by your draw to FWD luxury cars, since they have zero advantages over RWD luxury cars. So I’m lost as to why you would want them. Have you driven the CT6? If so, do you honestly not feel its superior driving experience and design proportions?
First and foremost: my “conception” (as you refer to it) about the “discerning buyer” not buying FWD cars is actually spot on. It’s not based on an opinion or qualitative measures, but is based on actual real-life experiences from years in this industry. The way it works is — by far and large — those who purchase a FWD luxury vehicle don’t know or care about cars in general, the way they drive, or the way they look. It’s a simply an appliance for them.
Now, there are also those who buy RWD cars who don’t care about what wheels drive their vehicle. However — and this is a big one — a good amount of those who buy RWD luxury cars buy them because of an actual benefit, which most of the time boils down to:
1. A perfect weight distribution that results in a superior dynamics and a great driving experience that aren’t present in FWD cars
2. Subjectively superior design traits that are simply not afforded by FWD cars
3. The ability to hold a significant amount of power that a FWD car simply can’t put to the ground
So the difference is that, while a very small or nill amount of FWD car buyers buy it because it’s FWD, a significantly larger percentage buy a car for being RWD (or RWD-based AWD). RWD is a desirable feature. FWD is not.
Now, let’s talk about your Buffett example (not sure why you felt the need to explain to me who he is). Your example is truly flawed, I’ll play along. Riddle me this:
1. There are so many better (higher quality, more luxurious, more potent, better looking, more tech-laden, etc.). cars that a billionaire can buy compared to a DTS or XTS. Does nothing strike you as odd that a billionaire is buying Cadillac models that start at $50,000? Why isn’t he buying Bentleys, RRs, Maybachs… etc.? Now, you could say that not everyone wants to flaunt their wealth, and that Mr. Buffett is known for his reserve/conservative nature. But honestly, there are better cars that could have been purchased. And I hope you’re not going to tell me that he bought these cars because they are “just so damn good” that he picked them over the aforementioned ultra-luxury machines… because they simply can’t even hold a candle to them.
2. Buffett bought these cars at a time when a “real” full-size Cadillac sedan (CT6) wasn’t available. Do you honestly believe that he would make the same choice again today — that he would actually buy an XTS over the new CT6 *today*? I don’t know the answer (neither do you) — but I think we can safely assume it will be a solid “no”, since the CT6 does everything that the XTS does, only better.
3. Does he actually drive these cars himself? Probably not. Or is he driven around in the backseat? Maybe. But maybe he also is driven around in a Town Car.
5. Does he represent the overall market? In other words, for this one (quite flawed) example, I can show you thousands others that did not and would not make that choice — people who aren’t billionaires, but who bought better cars.
6. Then you go on to state that Buffett is “one of the most discerning buyers” (and investors in modern history). I’m not sure you can make that statement with a significant amount of opinion/bias, and I’m sure I will be among many to tell you that there are vehicles far superior to the XTS in every sense of the word which he could have purchased. So… not so “discerning” after all, huh?
So yes — as you say — “facts are what they are”. The fact that Cadillac’s “top sellers” are the XTS and SRX/XT5 means what, exactly? I’ll tell you what it means:
1. Existing customer base: the segments in which the XTS and SRX/XT5 compete in are ones that the brand has been competing in for much longer than others. In the case of the XTS, which was preceded by the DTS, Seville, etc. you are looking at a customer base that has been well-established. The same goes for the XT5, preceded by two generations of the SRX. This is not the case for the ATS, CTS, or the CT6 — all of which take Cadillac into new segments, a necessity given that the XTS set is diminishing due to changing customer preferences. Give the ATS, CTS, and CT6 (and their CT# replacements) enough “burn in time” with the market, and you’ll see much more sales success.
2. Competition: the XTS has two rivals in the full-size, front-drive space — the Lincoln MKS and Acura RL/RLX. How many competitors do the ATS, CTS, and CT6 have? Significantly more — at least one from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Infiniti, Lexus, Jaguar. The point is that the XTS is the best vehicle in the class in which it competes, and the competitors are relatively weak. By contrast, the ATS, CTS, and CT6 are very good vehicles, but might not be the best.
3. Affordable: both the XTS and XT5 are on the highly affordable end of the luxury spectrum. As such, their sales volume should definitely be higher than more vehicles that offer less “value”.
4. And if you really want to get into the nitty gritty of the sales volume discussion, then I challenge you to add up the cumulative sales of the S-Class, 7 Series, Lexus LS, and Jaguar XJ — and compare them to cumulative sales of the XTS, RLX, and MKS. The “proper” full-size RWD sedans outsell the former “half-baked” full-size FWD sedans, despite being significantly more expensive.
The above can also be said about the Lexus “sales leaders” you mentioned in an earlier comment — the ES and RX. They sell because they are less expensive. Not because people wake up and say, “I love this car, I’m going to go out and buy it”.
Overall, if you want to have an intelligent discussion about sales performance, you should take into account:
1. The reasons behind a sales success (or lackthereof)
2. The future sales potential of a vehicle
3. The future sales potential of a segment
4. The competition
5. Prestige/image of a vehicle
Take all those things into account, and you will see that the XTS and SRX/XT5 are not selling in high numbers because they are great vehicles that are best in class on all accounts. What you will see is that they’re good sellers because they represent a good value and have been around for decades (XTS) or a decade (SRX/XT5).
As for your comment about MBZ having a FWD car… yes, they have them already and have had them in Europe for years. They’re called CLA-Class, A-Class, B-Class, and GLA-Class. All share a common subcompact/compact platform and are meant to attract new customers to the brand at a low price point. The reason they are FWD-based is because it’s much less expensive to do a FWD car than a “proper” (and properly balanced) RWD one. Fear not, the FWD trend won’t propagate past the C-Class. The same is true for BMW, which will have the next-gen 1er and 2er on FWD platforms. The X1 already is on a FWD architecture shared with Mini. The point is that these are entry-level vehicles… and for entry-level vehicles, they are actually very well-done; but there is a reason why the Germans are keeping the front-drivers to the bottom of the lineup, while retaining the more expensive and quantitatively better RWD layout for “real” luxury cars.
Speaking of the Germans: the Mercedes-Benz S-Class is arguably the perennial, undisputed leader of the segment and the standard bearer of the full-size luxury sedan segment. It’s often reported that MBZ doesn’t have a development budget for the vehicle — as its goal is to simply make the best luxury car in the world. That direction can be clearly seen when you look at the S-Class, sit in the S-Class, drive it, and ride in it. It’s a marvelous car, it defines the Mercedes-Benz brand, and so many people lust after one. None of that can be said about any FWD-based luxury cars, including the XTS, Lexus ES, any Acura, Lincoln, etc.
My question to you, Victor, is such: if FWD is so great (according to you), then why didn’t MBZ develop and use a FWD architecture for what is often believed to be the best luxury vehicle in the world? Instead, they studied their options and chose a rear-drive architecture that’s separate from all of their other (“lesser”) vehicles… much like Cadillac has done with the Omega platform for the CT6.
You write this: “When a company responds to the buyer’s discernment then that is the company which becomes the most successful.” My question to you is, do you honestly believe that average buyers are smart enough to know what they want and what is possible? After all, Henry Ford could have developed a better carriage when tasked with improving transportation, rather than making a car.
The point is that there is a reason that the best, most desirable, and most lusted after luxury cars on this planet are built with a rear-drive layout. The flipside of that is that no FWD-based car is considered to be the best, or is highly desirable.
So, all in all, I’m trying to understand what you find attractive in FWD luxury cars. But something tells me that you are simply stuck on them because that’s what you’re familiar with the most. After all, no one likes change. Especially when it’s change over which you have no control.
Although I do agree with you somewhat, have you experience RWD? Nothing wrong with FWD but the profile is not the same like RWD and engineering on RWD is superior because the excellent driving dynamics and ride/handling balance.
Design is a matter of opinion and I think the XTS is a beautiful design onto the FWD platform. I have no problem considering it on a short list with the other RWD Cadillacs.
My neighbor has a BMW 7 and 3. When we exchange cars he always preferences that his BMW will not be as smooth handling as my Cadillac because his car is a luxury sports car. It is all a matter of preference. I enjoy my luxury ride and handling. GM leads the world with its megneride adaptive suspension. In the end it is a matter of preference. It is narrow minded to impose what one finds as pleasurable on others. I own two Cadillacs and a Mercedes E. I enjoy all my cars. Each cat has a unique character. My grandchildren prefers my E class. I like all my cars. I have owned at least one and usually two Cadillacs since 1984.
But that’s the thing, Victor — what is it (exactly) that you prefer on a FWD car compared to a RWD one?
Keep in mind that drive wheels don’t affect a vehicle’s “smoothness” or softness. What they do impact is its agility, its ability to put power down efficiently and effectively, and its ability to corner.
Now, if we are talking objectively, there is no reason for anyone to prefer an XTS over a BMW 7 Series, so long as the cars are specced correctly in regards to suspension, wheels and tires. In other words, if a buyer is looking for a “soft” luxury car, they should get the base 7 Series that rides on 17-inch wheels wrapped in “normal” tires with a lot of sidewall and the “standard” suspension system. That vehicle is the most comparable to the characteristics of the XTS. If they want something more sporty, there’s always the M-Sport package that will turn ability and “connectedness to the road” up to 11.
The point is that the 7 Series, due to its RWD layout and proper weight distribution, can accommodate both kinds of buyers. The XTS, on the other, can not.
In regards to your earlier comment that you would pay $70K for a FWD-based vehicle… you would be part of a very, very small group that is not representative of the luxury car buyer at large. That’s not a successful business proposition.
Even you admitted that your grandchildren prefer your E Class. That’s precisely the kind of buyers Cadillac wants to win over.
Hi Curtnik, That’s true Cadillac is running after the younger foreign car buyer. However, I believe it is doubtful that Cadillac will win over Mercedes, BMW and/or Audi car buyers.
Firstly, one never wins by copying and/or advertising you are just as good as your competitor in the luxury car business. Secondly, Cadillac constant reinventing itself and ignoring its heritage cheapens the brand. Consider Harley Davidson. They affirmed their rich heritage and built modern bikes reflecting their heritage for modern America which led to their success. It is my opinion Cadillac should do the same. Cadillac heritage is world class cars. Cadillac should be building cars that equal Bentley and Roll Royce at Mercedes and BMW price points. BMW and Mercedes buyers will not successfully be tempted with a lateral move. They must feel they are moving up to Cadillac luxury at an attainable price point and value point. Another example is Lexus. Their original ads indicated Lexus being better than Mercedes at a lower price point. American people like value. Lexus became a luxury car world leader.
Regarding V8 and 6s, I believe the V8 and to some extent V6 keep the luxury car buyer in a performance area where few average cars buyer can ever experience. I view the V8 today as an exclusive luxury car experience.
Hi Alex, I agree assuming equal levels of power, weight, expense and engineering sophistication, a FWD car will never match the maximum performance capability of a RWD car. The benefit of FWD is fuel savings, space efficiency i.e. more leg room in the front and good traction on slippery roads. The benefit of RWD is ultimate performance. Nevertheless, I have discovered car companies tend to make their FWD luxury car more pampered handling than the RWD counterparts.
Also, I believe the price of a car does not make it inherently better. Pricing is often reflective of the market and niche. Rolls Royce and Bentley had out-dated engines and transmission for years. Nevertheless, it was still one the highest priced cars. Then around the late 1990s BMW began to supply the engines.
Moving on, I don’t choose cars because of what others say or value. I buy what I enjoy and value. Yes, Buffet can purchase any car he wants. He wanted the Cadillac XTS. I think he made a good choice. True car enthusiast choose cars they like, not cars that impress others or cost the most. This is the beauty of being a car enthusiast. We all have freedom to choose. Let’s celebrate our differences and embrace our love of cars. I enjoy the raw power of the Dodge Charger Scat Pack, the world class handling of a BMW 3 or 5, and the pampering of Cadillac XTS. I once had six cars just to enjoy the different ride and handling of each car. My wife made me reduce to three cars. Perhaps one day all my cars will all be RWD, but definitely never a four cylinder. 🙂 But that’s a different post.
What do you think about a V8? How do you feel about inline 6s?
Looks like the consensus is the ATS will not receive any substantial redesign during its lifetime as an ATS model name.
So When do we all think the ATS replacement will be available?
Late 2017 as a 2018 model?
Late 2018 as a 2019 model?
How (if at all) will a brand new name/model affect current ATS resale values?
I have a 2013 and am getting crushed, was wondering it it’s better to sell it April 2017 or hold it for another year but risk still having the car when the new model is announced and then my car is worth even less. Thoughts?
Hi House I think the ATS is a wonderful car which is under appreciated and under valued. I don’t think the resale value will get worst. There is no other car at its price point which is equal to the ATS performance looks and luxury. unfortunately Cadillac gets beaten during its first 2 to 3 years. Then the resale holds fairly well. my concern would be the durability of the turbo four cylinder. If Cadillac has a dependable turbo then I think the resale should be reasonable. Also we need to monitor the SRX resale value now that the name has changed to XT5 to make a more informed decision.
Stretching the CT6 for improved rear passenger space may make more sense than a CT8 super-sedan given how sales numbers for sedans bigger than the CT6 is very small and if not a variant of the mid-engine Corvette, Cadillac needs to consider building a CT6 coupe.