General Motors Won’t Gain Market Share Through To 2018, Analysts Say
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Despite recent growth in the automotive industry, General Motors won’t improve upon its 17.9% market share in the United States for at least another four years, The Detroit Free Press reports.
John Murphy, an expert automotive analyst with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has conducted his annual “Car Wars” study each year since 1994. The study aims to track auto industry product trends and predict market share gains for automakers based on the new cars and trucks they will release in the coming years. The company’s which release more new products tend to also see market share growth and increased sales.
Murphy says GM will maintain the same market share over the next four years. Despite this, the company is poised to replace 21% of its current model lineup by 2018, an improvement over its usual rate of 14%, the Free Press reports. GM’s product launches are expected to slow in 2018, which Murphy believes will impact its ability to gain market share.
The only Big Three automaker which will gain market share in coming years, according to Murphy, is Ford. The Blue Oval will replace approximately 111% of all of its cars and trucks over the next four years. This is not only more than any other American automaker, but more than any automaker operating in the U.S. market.
Fiat Chrysler’s market share, much like GM’s, is also expected to remain stagnant over the next four years. The company will have minimal product launches in the near future, but will allegedly introduce a slew of new models in 2017 and 2018. Its current market share of 11.5% will probably remain, with CEO Sergio Marchionne’s targets of gaining 4% market share in four years being “pretty aggressive” and “unattainable” according to Murphy.
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I highly doubt he’s right, I’m guessing the new c8 corvette will come around that year or next, considering Tadge said that expect the next one to be an even bigger leap, we still have the Caddillac ATS, LTS, along with another crossover or 2 from caddi, Buick has another cross, and probably a coupe or 2, GMC is most likely going to see all crossovers replaced, the Malibu still needs another update, and Malibu as well the impala will probably see their updates that year. So, GM still has a lot more cars to introduce or update, including the trucks.
How often are the experts left to be proven wrong. Figures lie and liars figure.
The market right now is very volatile and a lot could happen and predicting it is like predicting what the weather will be 100 years from now when they can’t predict more than 5 days ahead now with any accuracy.
Many predicted GM sales would tank with the recalls. Well they have not. Many did not expect cars like the Cruze, Nox and Terrain to be this old and only have some of the highest sales numbers they ever enjoyed.
The trend of GM right now has been skeptical buyers when they came out of the bail out and today many are seeing the products and how well they are doing. I believe this is why the sales are increasing in vehicles going on 5 years old when most are tapering off.
I do not expect massive gains here as GM has a good share now and will only strengthen and add a little to it. The performance of the new cars like the New Nox and Cruze will prove to be critical to growth. The Impala is doing better than any one expected. if they can get us a competitive Malibu buy 2018 this could be the key stone to the whole deal.
What he has left out is how much more profitable GM is over the old GM. Even if they do not gain market share they will reap many more profits than before. The transaction prices have really been paying off and has helped with investment in new product.
Ford will remain stable and gain in some areas and stay the same in others much like GM.
Chrysler will make major gains as they have nothing and only have to increase a little to show big growth. Time will tell how much. Just do not be fooled by the percentage gains as the hard numbers are what really tell the strength.
The imports will be mixed. Honda is more challenged by Kia and Hyundai as they under cut their prices.
Toyota is just going to maintain what they have. Nissan needs to find a foot hold and Mazda will show some growth.