John Murphy, an expert automotive analyst with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has conducted his annual “Car Wars” study each year since 1994. The study aims to track auto industry product trends and predict market share gains for automakers based on the new cars and trucks they will release in the coming years. The company’s which release more new products tend to also see market share growth and increased sales.
Murphy says GM will maintain the same market share over the next four years. Despite this, the company is poised to replace 21% of its current model lineup by 2018, an improvement over its usual rate of 14%, the Free Press reports. GM’s product launches are expected to slow in 2018, which Murphy believes will impact its ability to gain market share.
The only Big Three automaker which will gain market share in coming years, according to Murphy, is Ford. The Blue Oval will replace approximately 111% of all of its cars and trucks over the next four years. This is not only more than any other American automaker, but more than any automaker operating in the U.S. market.
Fiat Chrysler’s market share, much like GM’s, is also expected to remain stagnant over the next four years. The company will have minimal product launches in the near future, but will allegedly introduce a slew of new models in 2017 and 2018. Its current market share of 11.5% will probably remain, with CEO Sergio Marchionne’s targets of gaining 4% market share in four years being “pretty aggressive” and “unattainable” according to Murphy.